Eurobench.com

nine_inch_nerd 16 juni 2023 15:11

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The hunt for lithium is heating up in the Pilbara and these stocks have snagged some tenure - Stockhead
Emma DaviesJune 16, 2023
stockhead.com.au/resources/the-hunt-f...

nine_inch_nerd 17 juni 2023 23:40

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From oil to lithium: How Saudi Arabia is building a battery supply chain
source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/...

voda 22 juni 2023 07:47

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Miljardair Boekhoorn steekt miljoenen in lithiumwinning voor batterijauto’s
Door THEO BESTEMAN

Updated Gisteren, 16:22
Gisteren, 16:08
in FINANCIEEL

AMSTERDAM - Investeerder Marcel Boekhoorn steekt met partners geld in lithiumwinning voor batterijen. De Nijmeegse miljardair heeft $6,2 miljoen geïnvesteerd in het Amerikaanse Nevada Lithium om te profiteren van de batterijrevolutie.

www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/573221675...

nine_inch_nerd 26 juni 2023 09:43

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Oil and gas majors step up efforts to diversify into lithium
Groups pin hopes on technological breakthrough to produce metal critical for electric car transition

Oil and gas majors are stepping up efforts to break into lithium to diversify beyond fossil fuels as hopes rise over a technological breakthrough to produce the metal critical for electric car batteries.

ExxonMobil, Schlumberger, Occidental Petroleum and Equinor are exploring whether their core skills of pumping, processing and reinjecting underground fluids such as oil and water could be deployed to process lithium from unconventional brine resources, helping to ease forecast shortages of a material expected to be vital for the energy transition.

www.ft.com/content/7616a9f4-e0db-4d61...

nine_inch_nerd 27 juni 2023 07:29

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John Goodenough, Nobel laureate and battery pioneer, dies at 100

voda 30 juni 2023 08:44

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Livista to site its German lithium refinery at Emden port
126 Views

Luxembourg-based Livista Energy confirmed on Thursday it will build its first European lithium refinery at Emden Seaport – the third-largest German North Sea port, Kallanish reports.

The company signed a letter of intent with Niedersachsen Ports to secure a 32-hectare industrial land plot to build the lithium chemical plant. The facility is planned to produce 40,000 tonnes/year of battery-grade lithium products – roughly 30,000 t/y of lithium hydroxide and 10,000 t/y of lithium carbonate. First production is slated for 2026.

Voor meer, zie link:

www.kallanish.com/en/news/power-mater...

nine_inch_nerd 14 juli 2023 15:19

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Stoelriemen vast voor beleggers in de grondstoffen voor batterijen
fd.nl/financiele-markten/1481505/stoe...

Ophef deze week onder beleggers en analisten die de markten volgen voor de grondstoffen voor de energietransitie. Het Internationaal Energieagentschap gooide een steen in de vijver met een nieuw rapport: de metalen worden misschien toch niet zo schaars als eerder gevreesd. Dat was een heel ander geluid dan tot nu te horen was. Maar wie deze markten al langer volgt, weet dat de prijzen allesbehalve steil omhoog gaan.

Voor de energietransitie zijn veel grondstoffen nodig. Als het goed is, zijn we straks van fossiele brandstoffen zoals olie en steenkool af. Maar voor die tijd moeten nog heel veel windmolens, zonnepanelen en elektrische auto's worden geproduceerd, evenals batterijen om al die groene stroom in op te slaan. Dat betekent een enorme toename in de vraag naar metalen, waaronder koper (voor kabels en bedrading) en lithium, kobalt en nikkel (voor batterijen).

Angst voor schaarste

Tot voor kort schreeuwde een koor van analisten, grondstoffenhandelaren en mijnbouwbedrijven moord en brand over de (toekomstige) verkrijgbaarheid van deze en nog vele andere metalen. Willen we de opwarming van de aarde echt beperken, dan krijgen we nooit op tijd al die grondstoffen uit de grond, klonk het.

Die angst voor schaarste was te zien in de prijzen, met die van de grondstoffen voor batterijen als meest sprekende voorbeeld. Kobalt en lithium maakten een achtbaanrit. Bij nikkel is het net iets anders, omdat het al een belangrijke grondstof is voor roestvaststaal. Maar ook bij dit metaal stuiterden de prijzen wild op en neer.

Lithiumprijs door het dak, en weer hard omlaag

Bij lithium begonnen de prijzen in 2021 te stijgen, en dat zette vorig jaar door. Eind 2022 piekte lithiumcarbonaat in China op (omgerekend) ruim $80.000 per ton, om vervolgens weer in te storten. Er is nu nog iets meer dan de helft van over. Carbonaat slaat op de vorm waarin het voor batterijen bestemde lithium verhandeld wordt, in dit geval als een wit zoutpoeder.

Vervelend voor de belegger die vorig jaar is ingestapt, maar historisch gezien is lithium nog steeds wel heel duur. Vóór 2021 kostte een ton minder dan $10.000.

Kobalt daalde nog harder. Een ton kobalthydroxide (grof kristalpoeder) is volgens Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, een bedrijf dat marktinformatie vergaart, nu goed voor bijna $19.000 per ton. De laatste piek, begin 2022, lag op ruim $76.000. De huidige prijs is ook in historisch perspectief laag.

Door het prijsverloop zou je bijna denken dat handelaren het IEA-rapport van deze week al gelezen hadden. De energiewaakhond betoogt namelijk dat er de laatste jaren veel meer is geïnvesteerd in nieuwe mijnen en verwerkingsfabrieken voor deze metalen. Als al die plannen doorgaan, valt het met de toekomstige schaarste (en dus de prijs) uiteindelijk wel mee. Dat is dan nog wel een grote als, want een nieuwe mijn openen is bepaald niet gemakkelijk en behoorlijk tijdrovend.

Het IEA waarschuwt bovendien dat het delven en verwerken nog steeds erg geconcentreerd is in slechts een paar landen. 90% van alle geplande verwerkingsfabrieken voor nikkel komt bijvoorbeeld in Indonesië, en China is goed voor de helft van alle geplande lithiumfabrieken. Die waarschuwing is zeer actueel, want vorige week nog ontstond ophef over de plannen van China om de export van gallium en germanium te beperken. Dat zijn essentiële grondstoffen voor bedrijven die computerchips maken.

Ook op de nikkelmarkt waren ongekend wilde taferelen te zien, maar dat had weinig met batterijen te maken. Wel met de Russische inval in Oekraïne.

Daardoor schoten de prijzen van veel grondstoffen omhoog. Bij nikkel bleek een grote roestvaststaalproducent uit China een shortpositie te hebben ingenomen, en dus juist uitging van een prijsdaling. Het terugdraaien op de London Metal Exchange van die positie, die veel te groot bleek voor zowel de producent als de metalenmarkt, zorgde voor chaos. De prijs voor nikkel schoot door het dak, de handel werd stilgelegd, bestaande transacties teruggedraaid. Vooral dat laatste zette veel kwaad bloed bij handelaren.

Volgers van de markt voor batterijengrondstoffen kijken volgens Caspar Rawles, chief data officer bij Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, tegenwoordig vooral naar de prijs van een nikkelvariant die mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) heet en wordt verhandeld in Azië. MHP is een halffabricaat dat vaak ook een beetje kobalt bevat. Een ton kost nu $16.000, grofweg de helft van de piek van bijna $34.000 in maart 2022.

'Grondstoffen zullen weer duurder worden'

Ondanks alle wilde bewegingen vermoedt Rawles dat de prijzen voor de grondstoffen voor batterijen uiteindelijk weer omhooggaan. 'Bij de meeste grondstoffen worden eerst de makkelijk te delven afzettingen afgegraven. Als die uitgeput zijn, wordt het lastiger en dus duurder. Dat legt een bodem onder de prijs.' Hij gaat er bovendien nog steeds van uit dat het aanbod de vraag niet zal kunnen bijbenen. 'Er zit genoeg in de grond, maar wij denken dat dat niet snel genoeg beschikbaar komt om prijsstijgingen te voorkomen.'

En de techniek dan? De zoektocht naar betere batterijen is in volle gang, en het is niet gezegd dat de batterij van de toekomst dezelfde grondstoffen bevat. Rawles onderkent dit, maar stelt tegelijk dat het vervangen van de huidige technologie, als het al zover komt, een zaak van de lange adem is. 'Het duurt jaren voordat een andere soort batterij genoeg marktaandeel heeft om de vraag naar grondstoffen substantieel te beïnvloeden.'

nine_inch_nerd 19 juli 2023 16:14

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Canada is the place to be:
www.cpac.ca/episode?id=198a1c15-321d-...

nine_inch_nerd 23 juli 2023 23:53

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Zelfs een oliegigant als Exxon doet het

Exxon plans to build lithium processing facility near Magnolia, WSJ reports
arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2023/07/21...

nine_inch_nerd 25 juli 2023 11:08

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Ja, dit gebeurt ook. Europa is toch strenger en stugger.

Portugal to scrap lithium mining project
Locals spent years fighting to halt the project, a cornerstone of Lisbon’s raw materials policy.
www.politico.eu/article/portugal-lith...

nine_inch_nerd 3 augustus 2023 18:36

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Wordt "deepsea mining" het nieuwe 'gat in de markt'.
Op de bodem oceanen liggen alle zeldzame metalen en mineralen.
Overall nog geen 'groen licht gegeven'.

Canadian deep-sea miner TMC to seek licence in 2024
www.mining.com/canadian-deep-sea-mine...

Why Deep-Sea Mining Is the Next Battleground in the Energy Transition
Countries and companies are in a fight between those that want to excavate minerals used in electric vehicles and others that warn the cost is too high.
www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/business/d...

Jalapenjos 3 augustus 2023 22:49

1

quote:
nine_inch_nerd schreef op 3 augustus 2023 18:36:
Wordt "deepsea mining" het nieuwe 'gat in de markt'.
Op de bodem oceanen liggen alle zeldzame metalen en mineralen.
Overall nog geen 'groen licht gegeven'.

Canadian deep-sea miner TMC to seek licence in 2024
www.mining.com/canadian-deep-sea-mine...

Why Deep-Sea Mining Is the Next Battleground in the Energy Transition
Countries and companies are in a fight between those that want to excavate minerals used in electric vehicles and others that warn the cost is too high.
www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/business/d...

Gisteren (2/8) een item hierover bij Nieuwsuur. Was best interessant.

DeZwarteRidder 5 augustus 2023 08:06

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Wat is lithium en waar wordt het voor gebruikt?

Lithium is het lichtste bekende alkalimetaal. Het zit in kleine hoeveelheden in mineralen zoals spodumeen, petaliet, lepidoleit en amblygoniet, in een aantal regionaal gebonden gesteentesoorten en in het water van een aantal mineraalbronnen. Vervolgens wordt het daaruit gewonnen door de elektrische ontbinding van lithiumchloride en kaliumchloride.

Metaal is op oneindig veel manieren te gebruiken en wordt uiteraard ook al lang gebruikt voor industriële doeleinden. Aangezien de vraag naar elektrische voertuigen (EV's) explosief oploopt, zijn lithiumionaccu's de populairste toepassing van lithium. Het metaal wordt ook vaak gebruikt in:

Farmaceutica
Pyrotechniek
Elektronica
Vliegtuigproductie

Meer informatie over grondstoffen en hoe u ze kunt traden
Een overzicht van de lithiumindustrie

Het verhaal is bekend uit talloze andere segmenten van de wereldeconomie: de coronapandemie had ingrijpende gevolgen voor de lithiumproductie. In 2020 kreeg de sector een historische marktdaling van 10,9% voor de kiezen, dit staat in volledig contrast met de jaar-op-jaargroei die sinds 2017 gezien was.4

Ondanks deze neergang wordt ervan uitgegaan dat de branche in de komende drie jaar bijna dubbel zo groot wordt, hoofdzakelijk vanwege de exploderende vraag naar accu's voor EV's. Als gevolg van deze prognose schoot het samengestelde jaarlijkse groeipercentage (de 'Compound Annual Growth Rate' of de CAGR) de hoogte in en krabbelde de sector weer op tot het niveau van vóór de pandemie.5 Er wordt verwacht dat de wereldwijde lithiumproductie in 2030 de grens van twee miljoen ton op jaarbasis overschrijdt.6

De toegenomen vraag werpt echter vragen op over de langetermijnperspectieven voor de sector. Daarnaast blijkt het metaal hoofdzakelijk in politiek minder stabiele landen te vinden, waardoor de roep om nieuwe, milieuvriendelijkere accutechnologieën aanzwelt.

Lees meer over hoe de lithiumindustrie het de afgelopen jaren heeft gedaan
Lithium traden – hoe werkt dat?

U kunt op een aantal verschillende manieren beginnen met traden of beleggen in lithium bij ons. Wilt u met hefboomwerking zijn blootgesteld aan de prijsschommelingen van lithium? Dat kan met Turbo24 en CFD's.

DeZwarteRidder 5 augustus 2023 08:43

0

quote:
nine_inch_nerd schreef op 3 augustus 2023 18:36:
Wordt "deepsea mining" het nieuwe 'gat in de markt'.
Op de bodem oceanen liggen alle zeldzame metalen en mineralen.
Overall nog geen 'groen licht gegeven'.

Canadian deep-sea miner TMC to seek licence in 2024
www.mining.com/canadian-deep-sea-mine...

Why Deep-Sea Mining Is the Next Battleground in the Energy Transition
Countries and companies are in a fight between those that want to excavate minerals used in electric vehicles and others that warn the cost is too high.
www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/business/d...

Er ligt vanalles op de zeebodem, behalve lithium en REE's.

En helaas zijn tot nu toe alle bedrijven die zich bezighouden met diepzeemijnbouw failliet gegaan.

nine_inch_nerd 23 augustus 2023 16:52

0

Ter info

Australia’s growing lithium demand dependent on global climate action: Treasury report
Wed, 23 August 2023 2:30PM
thewest.com.au/politics/federal-polit...

Global demand for Australia’s lithium is predicted to increase rapidly over the coming years, with the amount required based on how fast the world moves to limit climate change.

Australia’s position to take advantage of the demand for critical minerals could also be even stronger than anticipated, with about 80 per cent of the continent under-explored, the updated intergenerational report being released on Thursday highlights.

The report offers an assessment of the economy over the next 40 years and how changing demographics and other factors would interact with existing government policies.

It identifies critical minerals and advanced manufacturing as big opportunities to grow the economy over that timeframe.

In particular, it highlights the potential for lithium. Australia is already the world’s largest supplier of the key component of batteries and electric vehicles, but China is the largest processor.

“Even if global action is only sufficient to limit temperature increases to 3C, global demand for lithium is projected to quadruple,” the report states.

“If global actions are consistent with limiting temperature increases to 1.5C, global lithium demand could be more than eight times larger than current levels by 2063.”

The report also notes Australia is one of the few countries home to all three key elements of the aluminium industry, which is also important to the energy transition along with offering a more sustainable building material.

Resources Minister Madeleine King said there would need to be more mining, not less, for Australia and the world to confront the challenges of climate change.

“The world will need our critical minerals to build the batteries and wind farms and solar panels needed to power the energy transition,” she said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said it was vital for Australia to seize the opportunities in processing.

Australia's finance Minister Jim Chalmers speaks during an interview during the G-20 third Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBGs) meeting in Gandhinagar, India, Tuesday, July 18, 2023. (AP Photo/Ajit Solanki)
“We have the chance to do more than just rip and ship our minerals – we can mine, refine and manufacture them as well – creating more jobs and more opportunities for more Australians into the future,” he said.

“This is our big chance and our big opportunity to deepen and broaden our industrial base and usher in a new era of economic prosperity for our country.”

As well as the opportunities associated with decarbonisation, the report also explores the economic risks of climate change, warning that WA could be the hardest hit by temperature rises across Australia.

If the global temperature rises by 4C, the direct impact of people not being able to work as much because of the heat could cost the economy as much as $423 billion by 2063.

Under that scenario, Average temperatures in WA are forecast to rise by more than in other parts of the country.

“This suggests Western Australia could be more directly affected by the labour productivity impacts of higher temperatures than some other Australian states and territories,” the report says.

Crop yields would be lower, the threat of erosion on beaches and degradation of natural attractions would undermine tourism, and natural disasters – along with the economic hit from the destruction they wreak – would become more frequent.

Dr Chalmers said the grim assessment underscored the importance of responding to the threat of climate change.

nine_inch_nerd 29 augustus 2023 11:11

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A worldwide lithium shortage could come as soon as 2025
www.cnbc.com/2023/08/29/a-worldwide-l...

The world could face a shortage for lithium as demand for the metal ramps up, with some analysts forecasting that it could come as soon as 2025. Others, however, see a longer time frame before that shortfall hits.

BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, was among those that predict a lithium supply deficit by 2025. In a recently published report, BMI largely attributed the deficit to China’s lithium demand exceeding that of its supply.

“We expect an average of 20.4% year-on-year annual growth for China’s lithium demand for EVs alone over 2023-2032,” the report stated.

In contrast, China’s lithium supply will only grow 6% over the same period, BMI said, adding that rate cannot satiate even one third of forecasted demand.

China is the world’s third largest producer of lithium, which is an integral element in electric vehicle batteries.

The world produced 540,000 metric tons of lithium in 2021, and by 2030 the World Economic Forum projects that global demand will reach over 3 million metric tons.

The global battery supply chain may find lithium in shortfall again approaching the end of this decade.

Rystad Energy

Vice President Susan Zou

According to forecasts by S&P Global Commodity Insights, EV sales are set to reach 13.8 million in 2023, but will subsequently proceed to skyrocket to over 30 million by 2030.

“We do fundamentally believe in a shortage for the lithium industry. We forecast supply growth of course, but demand is set to grow at a much faster pace,” said Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank’s director of lithium and clean tech equity research.

By the end of 2025, Blanchard sees a “modest deficit” of around 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, but forecasts a wider deficit amounting to 768,000 tonnes by the end of 2030.

2030 deficit?

Other analysts don’t see a deficit coming so soon, but still predicted a shortfall by the end of the decade.

While more lithium mines and mining exploration projects coming online could support burgeoning demand, that would only extend the runway for a few more years, according to Rystad Energy’s estimates.

According to the energy research firm, hundreds of lithium projects are currently under exploration, but the complexity in geology and time-consuming permitting process still pose challenges.

There are currently only 101 lithium mines in the world, according to Refinitiv data.

Rystad Energy Vice President Susan Zou estimates that total lithium mine supply will increase by 30% and 40% year on year in 2023 and 2024, and that miners would continue to develop both existing and greenfield projects amid a “global push to electrify transportations.”

While that could point to a global lithium surplus next year, shortages could start to plague supply chains in 2028.

“In the next couple of years, though the lithium supply may stay adequate at a world-level, regional supply imbalance is still inevitable,” Zou added, noting regional mining and processing capacities in the U.S. and Europe might not be able to keep up with demand for EV batteries.

“The global battery supply chain may find lithium in shortfall again approaching the end of this decade when the supply growth might not keep pace with that of the demand,” she said.

In that scenario, Zou said lithium prices could spike to their historic 2022 highs, which in turn would increase battery production costs.

Lithium carbonate prices surged to a record high of almost 600,000 yuan per ton in November 2022, more than 12 times January 2021 prices.

EV growth is increasing the need for lithium supply, says Piedmont Lithium's Keith Phillips
Wood Mackenzie similarly forecasts that the overall lithium market will see a supply surplus in the coming years. However, continued demand growth and very few projects entering production in the early 2030s could mean the market is likely to experience another supply deficit, said the consultancy’s vice president of metals and mining research, Robin Griffin.

“The main risks [are] likely to come from delays in commissioning of new projects and delays in permitting of new assets,” he said.

Lithium mines generally take “10 years or longer” from first discovery to full-fledged lithium operation, Piedmont Lithium’s chief commercial officer, Austin Devaney, told CNBC via e-mail.

“We believe there will eventually be enough lithium to support the demands of electrification. But in the near term, we expect to see the impact of supply constraints on lithium pricing for many years, if not longer,” he said.

nine_inch_nerd 2 september 2023 11:36

0

Ter info.

Lithium stocks mania to extend into 2024 as EV demand soars
Tom RichardsonSep 1, 2023 – 2.40pm

www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/li...

Surging demand for lithium, the key ingredient used in electric vehicle batteries, has spilled over into the ASX. New York Timesnone
Australia’s lithium boom remains one of the sharemarket’s hottest sectors with the commodity expected to remain in a supply deficit out to 2030 as demand for the battery ingredient from electric vehicle makers continues to soar globally.

Just this week, shares of lithium miner IGO jumped more than 5 per cent after it flagged a $1.1 billion windfall for investors from its joint venture stake in Western Australia’s hard rock lithium Greenbushes mine.

Surging demand for lithium, the key ingredient used in electric vehicle batteries, has spilled over into the ASX. New York Timesnone
Soaring demand for lithium has driven IGO’s shares 249 per cent higher over the past five years to a $10.5 billion valuation. Rival Pilbara Minerals has jumped 549 per cent over the period to $14.5 billion as its profits from the Pilgangoora Mine hit $2.4 billion in the 2023 financial year.

The lithium rush has spilled into the sharemarket with dozens of ASX-listed junior explorers in Australia, Africa, South and North America all looking to exploit the supply shortages and emulate the blockbuster success of existing producers.

“We prefer producers generating cash with significant growth options in the portfolio like IGO Ltd and Pilbara [Minerals],” UBS resources analyst Lachlan Shaw said.

“When we look across the developers, I’d say it takes years and years to get these projects discovered, defined, studied, financed, built and into production.”

Still a long way to go

The market’s hottest explorer last month was Azure Minerals, which received a $2.31-a-share takeover offer from New York-listed Chilean producer SQM that valued the Perth-based company at more than $900 million. The stock has rocketed 1200 per cent over 12 months amid peak market interest in its drilling results at the Andover lithium tenement.

Other speculative explorers such as Liontown Resources and Canada-based Patriot Battery Metals have doubled or tripled in value over the past 12 months amid takeover interest and estimates of huge lithium resources.

“Azure and Patriot have what looks to be high-quality resources, but those projects won’t be in production until 2029, maybe later, so there’s a long way to go,” Mr Shaw said.

Analysts and fund managers expect more merger and acquisition activity as dozens of other lithium explorers target production by next year.

They are being led by Wesfarmers’ Mount Holland mine and its Kwinana lithium refinery, which the $61 billion investment conglomerate says could power about 1 million EVs each year when in production.

Others including Argosy Minerals’ Rincon Lithium Project, Allkem’s Olaroz stage-two project, and Liontown’s Kathleen Valley project are scheduled to bring more supply to the market by next year.

Extreme volatility

Share price performances for the sector vary widely. This year alone, Argosy’s shares have more than halved in value, while Allkem is up more than 25 per cent and Liontown’s shares have more than doubled.

UBS still forecasts the lithium supply market to be in deficit by about 1 million tonnes a year in 2030, although Mr Shaw said recent falls in the lithium carbonate price to below $US3000 a tonne was pressuring valuations.

UBS forecasts lithium spodumene prices to average $US3500 a tonne in 2024, before retreating to $US3000 a tonne in 2025.

Morningstar equities analyst Seth Goldstein said investors should expect extreme volatility in the share prices that have come to define the sector over the past few years.

“The market will be in and out of deficit out to 2030, the volatility in the level of the deficit and prices is likely to continue even as demand rises exponentially,” he said.

“We think downstream demand will remain strong due to growth in EV sales and increased battery use for energy storage systems. So, that will drive an undersupply by the end of the year and prices will rise and remain higher into 2024.”

Among the major producers, Morningstar values lithium and iron ore producer Mineral Resources at $67 a share as Australia’s broader mining industry faces wage, energy and input cost inflation through 2024. That compares to the current share price of about $71.75.

On Friday, UBS reiterated its buy recommendation for IGO with a $14.90 price target. The broker is neutral on Pilbara Minerals with a 12-month price target of $4.85. The shares are trading at about $13.70 and $4.62, respectively.

nine_inch_nerd 12 september 2023 22:21

0

Understanding Lithium Mineralogy from an Investment Perspective
investingnews.com.au/understanding-li...

nine_inch_nerd 14 september 2023 13:56

0

EU-China Electric Car Spat More Good News for Battery Metal Miners
www.adamasintel.com/eu-china-ev-spat-...

nine_inch_nerd 17 september 2023 11:16

0

Lithium
"the oversupply came well before the momentary demand. That’s why the lithium price has dropped from $85 to $29"

Lithium is all the rage. Then why is it constantly decreasing?
www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-09-15...

This metal often stays in the shadow of gold, silver, aluminum, and other more heavy-traded assets. And in 2023, the gap is even wider, with lithium hitting a rock-bottom low last seen at the end of 2021. Why it’s happening, and where the shine of the metal has gone – it’s time to find answers.

First, let's take a look at the lithium futures chart. As you can see, the metal was at its highs throughout the previous year, soaring over 120% from January 1 to December 31, 2023. Gold and silver were left behind.

But in 2023, lithium lost its friends (sorry, that's just a nod to Nirvana's lyrics) and all its winning streaks. This year's chart illustrates continuous drops perfectly well.

Let's run back over why lithium became the hot topic. The main reason is lithium-ion batteries, found in electric vehicles, laptops, smartphones, and other electronic gadgets (if we consider vehicles as such). Smartphones and laptops have been around for years, but electric cars are just about to conquer the world. Therefore, the demand for lithium might increase in the next 3, 5, or 10 years – or in each of these periods.

2023 hasn’t been the most favorable environment for growth. The world crisis with skyrocketing prices has pushed people to reconsider their daily expenses rather than to splash the cash on a new (and probably their first) electric car. Industrial demand has decreased, but lithium production has only surged. New operations have sprung up in Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, China, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Germany, Russia.

In other words, the oversupply came well before the momentary demand. That’s why the lithium price has dropped from $85 to $29.

Nevertheless, most experts believe it’s not the end but a new start. Economic recovery and increased purchasing power will return sooner or later. Electric vehicles will more and more often substitute internal combustion engine autos. And there are even various deadlines regarding when lithium will be in deficit – some experts expect it as early as 2025, while others project it in 2030 and beyond.

Nobody knows when exactly the demand for lithium rebounds and prices resume their growth. The nearest positive driver is the expected reduction in the Fed's interest rates in 2024, but it’s unrelated to demand and is unlikely to be a huge catalyst. At the same time, nobody denies that lithium could become one of the most valuable resources in the near future.

It means that investors can discover trading opportunities in lithium futures and stocks of relevant companies. Just remember to conduct your own in-depth analysis before making any buying or selling decisions.

AEX 913,25 -0,31 -0,03% 18:05


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NX FILTRATION	+8,76%
VIVORYON THER...	+6,12%
Sif Holding	+4,09%
RENEWI	+3,21%
HEIJMANS KON	+3,08%

Corbion	-3,97%
ADYEN NV	-3,20%
EBUSCO HOLDING	-3,00%
SIGNIFY NV	-2,50%
PROSUS	-2,29%

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