JSW Steel sees stable input costs, margin – Mr Seshagiri Rao
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BloombergQuint reported that input costs for the steel industry are expected to stabilise in the coming quarters, which will lead to an improvement in prices or realisations and profit margin in the second half of the current financial year, Mr Seshagiri Rao, joint managing director and chief financial officer at JSW Steel Ltd., told BloombergQuint that the demand picture for steel looks robust at the moment.
Mr Rao said that in the second quarter, realisation was flat because the surge in the international prices of steel could not be passed on in India at the same pace since imports went up substantially. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:
Mr Rao said that therefore, if imports are moderated as requested and input prices and margins stabilise, JSW Steel will perform better in the second half than the first half of the current financial year.
Q - The second quarter was impacted by higher input costs and higher imports. Can you tell us what the picture for next two quarters will look like?
A - The global steel industry’s outlook has been very positive, particularly taking into account the developments in China and also in the advanced economies. In the first nine months of calendar year 2017 steel demand is expected to be 7 percent higher and in China, it will be up 12.4 percent. So, there is a positive sentiment for the global steel industry outlook. That’s why we are seeing some stabilisation in prices and also an upward bias in the overall steel prices.
The investment sentiment is improving. Globally, infrastructure investment is coming up again because of higher commodity prices. Taking that into account, with regards to India, as far as steel demand is concerned, we have grown by 4 percent which is higher than last year. The second half of the financial year is generally better than the first half. So, steel prices should be better than first half in the second half and demand should pick up too. Taking all these factors into account, JSW Steel is likely to do well in the second half.
Q - Input prices have increased and imports have increased as well. Do you think pricing might improve in the second half?
A - Commodity prices rose across the globe. Iron ore which was at USD 40 per tonne went up to USD 80, even though some correction has happened helping it stabilise at USD 60. So, the extra iron ore cost is getting absorbed. Coking coal prices which were below USD 100 went above USD 200, then came down to USD 180, and stabilised at those levels. So, in the second quarter of this financial year, we had to absorb the higher raw material prices.
At the same time, there was a surge in the international prices of steel. But the same pace increase in steel prices could not be passed on in India because of a substantial increase in steel product imports. Sequentially, it went up by 58 percent.
That is why, the realisation was flat on a quarter-on-quarter basis, and we have seen some pressure in the last quarter. Going forward, I am not seeing an increase in input prices. Steel price margins are stable. Because the demand is robust, I expect the margins to improve in the second half over the first half.
Q - Do you expect the prices of iron ore and coking coal to flatten? Do you expect the import pressure to continue in the next few quarters?
A - As far as raw material prices are concerned, I don’t expect them to further rise over the current prices. Because of two reasons. One is, China has already peaked in steel production. Therefore, there is more supply of iron ore coming in the market and at the same time, coking coal is also coming in market. So, I don’t see an increase in iron ore and coking coal prices at the current levels.
At the same time, we have been bringing it to the attention of the government, that in the last quarter there was a significant increase in the imports of steel production into India. So, it has to be looked at why the imports are coming when the domestic prices are at a lower level than the landed cost of imports for some of the products. We expect some moderation for imports. Some of the imports, which came in the second quarter, were booked when the prices of steel international were lower. So, in my view, the imports in India should moderate going forward.
Hence, I expect the second half, in terms of margin, demand, moderation of imports, to be better than the first half.
Q - By how much do you expect the realisation to improve in the coming quarters?
A - As far as JSW Steel is concerned, there are two-three factors which have to be taken in to account for why the second half will be better for JSW Steel.
Some of the quarterly or half yearly contracts which were there in the first half, they will get repriced in the second half. That’s why the realisation would be reset for those contracts, particularly the original equipment manufacturer customers in the auto and appliances sector.
Second, the exports that we have booked on the old prices, they get repriced in the second half.
The third is, as far as domestic prices are concerned, the discount of imports at international prices and an increase in the scope of domestic prices also takes place.
Taking these three factors into account, I expect the realisation to go up. It is very difficult to say how much it could go up. But generally, I can talk about margin improvement in the second half over the first half.
Q - Would this be restricted to JSW individually or do you think that the realisation could improve for the industry?
A - For the industry, whatever results that have come for the Indian steel companies, more or less they are on the same trend. So, the realisation is flat for some of the steel companies which have announced results. I expect the same trend will continue. One factor is important that our exports are 26 percent of our sales. Therefore, that has to be factored in while looking at other steel companies with regard to repricing of their exports realisation in the second half.
Q - You mentioned that input cost pressure will be stable in the third quarter. What about the quarters ahead?
A - Cyclical volatility is inherent in the steel sector. So companies have to absorb the cyclical nature to be sustainable in their profitability and in the future of outlook. As far as JSW Steel is concerned, 60 percent of our product mix is our value-added products and special products. Therefore, we are reducing the cyclicality and thereby, maintain our profitability.
We would like to increase that proportion. Thereby, the commodity grade steel proportion is reduced in our overall product mix. That is how we are working out. That’s why, we are spending large amount of capex in increasing our downstream products like cold rolling, galvanizing, galvalume and colour coated. These are the products on which we are focusing more. So, it not only has lesser cyclicality but it is also possible to export the product at attractive realisation.
Q - How would the next six odd months look like, in terms of capacity expansion and the mining scenario?