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Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 25 april 2019 17:55

ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/crude... Daar is de sparecapacity weer...

'In de hoek!'
invst.ly/amq2n
invst.ly/amq3j
invst.ly/amq46

Het is niet Trump vs Opec, maar Trump met Saudi. Iedereen wordt in de mangel genomen. En de in maling want Trump/shale is vooralsnog bluf mbt olieprijs. Dus Trump/WallSt zijn de Saudi hun rug aan het wassen voor eigen zak (wapenorders, IPO's) die ondertussen Noord-Afrika terroriseren. En daarmee de EU, indirect. Gaan vrolijke onderhandelingen worden (EU-VS trade deal)

[verwijderd] 25 april 2019 18:14

Nog wat:
Het schijnt dat steeds meer banken en OLIEBEDRIJVEN zelf paperoil aan het handelen zijn. Die laatsten deden dat eerst alleen om hun productie te hedgen en zo een gegarandeerde minimum prijs veilig te stellen. Nu hebben sommigen een tradingdesk. Moet niet gekker worden, want dat kan goed fout gaan. Vooral in de VS. Stel dat demand inkrakt door een wereldwijde recessie, de banken gaan dat extra risico (olie) niet trekken volgens mij. (=collapse)

[verwijderd] 25 april 2019 19:09

SUPPLY
www.investing.com/analysis/iran-sanct...
How much Iranian oil can we expect to come off the market?
The U.S. government claims that Iran is currently exporting 1 million bpd of oil and that maximum pressure is being put on importers to end their purchases of Iranian oil. However, non-governmental tracking services indicate that there is significantly more Iranian oil on the market. Data for March show that Iran exported anywhere from 1.7 million (Platts) to 1.9 million (TankerTrackers) bpd of oil and oil equivalent. China is the largest single importer of Iranian oil right now.
It is likely that South Korea, Japan, Turkey and India (the other importers of Iranian oil) will comply with the U.S. sanctions. That would take possibly 700,000 bpd of Iranian oil off the market. However, China is likely to continue some imports despite the sanctions. There are over 20 million barrels of Iranian oil sitting in bonded storage in Dalian, China, that China will want to draw on, and only a small amount of that oil has been accessed so far. China will be especially motivated to buy Iranian oil at discounted rates as oil prices rise.
U.S. output has already reached record levels in recent months, and there is no consensus on how much higher it can go. [gaat tegenvallen]

[verwijderd] 26 april 2019 19:18

PAPER
www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-a-sur...
In the chart below from a Thursday note, Michael Tran, commodity analyst at RBC, observed that the spread between the first-month futures contract on the ICE exchange and the sixth-month contract was at its widest since before oil prices collapsed in mid-2014.
“This is not simply an indicator that the marginal barrels are clearing, but a surefire sign of market tightness and that the scramble for barrels is in full force,” Tran wrote.
graph: ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2019/04...

Tja...
eng.belta.by/economics/view/intention...
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World...
Though a rare occurrence, oil contamination could have longer-lasting effects on European refineries as not all of them have enough oil in storage to keep operating as usual. Germany’s refining industry is fine for the time being with ample supplies, but Polish refiners could face some challenges in finding alternative crude oil supplies.
The Druzhba pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany with branches into countries along the way has the capacity to transport up to 1 million barrels of crude daily. Yet the contamination has also been found in tanker cargoes loaded at the Ust Luga port.
According to Reuters trading sources, at least five vessels belonging to Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, and Kazakh companies have set sail from the terminal with contaminated cargo. The buyers of the cargoes include Total, Trafigura, Vitol, and Equinor.
[En waar gaan die dat lossen? #gif]
uawire.org/ukraine-stops-russian-oil-...
Kiev expects oil supplies to resume in early May. Ukraine suspended the transit of oil through the Druzhba pipeline, citing quality concerns over Russian oil. Poland, Germany and Slovakia also halted Russian oil imports, triggering a rare crisis over supply from the world’s second-largest crude exporter.
www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-oil...

[verwijderd] 26 april 2019 19:35

RIGCOUNT
oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Ma... ~grijns~

[verwijderd] 26 april 2019 19:52

IEA rapport
www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refini...
Sussende woorden, maar tevergeefs. Eerst Libya, volgens mij.

TAeleaves
www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cycle-tradi...
www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-oil-out...

VOPAK
www.globenewswire.com/news-release/20...

[verwijderd] 26 april 2019 21:54

SUPPLY
South Sudan’s oil exports have been disrupted after oil workers in the city of Port Sudan in neighbouring Sudan went on strike and joined widespread anti-government protests.
An unknown quantity of oil had failed to be lifted in the Red Sea city, where landlocked South Sudan’s oil is transferred from a pipeline to oil tankers.
South Sudan’s current oil production is 135,000 barrels per day.
www.reuters.com/article/southsudan-oi...

TWATty
President Trump hasn’t spoken over the phone with the OPEC secretary-general or with the Saudi energy minister, asking to lower oil prices, according to people familiar with the matter.
Mr. Trump told reporters Friday that he had called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and asked the cartel to do something about rising oil prices. His statements contributed to a nearly 4% price drop.
www.wsj.com/articles/opec-saudi-offic...

[verwijderd] 27 april 2019 12:31

SUPPLY
BEIJING (Reuters) - An investigation into contaminated Russian oil should be carried out with the help of law-enforcement agencies, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters in Beijing on Saturday.
Poland, Germany, Ukraine and some other countries suspended imports of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline this week due to the contamination. Russia plans to restore oil supplies via the pipeline to Europe in two weeks.
www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-oil...

Russia will not immediately raise oil output after the United States ends sanctions waivers for buyers of Iranian crude in May, President Vladimir Putin said Saturday.
The United States announced this week that, in a bid to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero, it would from May 2 end US waivers that countries such as India, China, South Korea and Turkey currently have on buying Iranian crude.
Eight countries including China, India and Turkey had been given temporary waivers by the US when it reimposed sanctions on Iran last year.
"Russia is ready to meet the needs of not just China, but of all our partners around the world," Putin told reporters on the sidelines of a summit in Beijing.
"We currently produce 1.5 million barrels of oil per day and we can produce more. We have colossal potential," Putin said.
"But we have an agreement with OPEC to maintain production at a certain level and this agreement is in force until July," he added.
The end of the exemptions sparked fears of supply shortages, pushing oil prices to near six-month highs.
"I can't imagine how the world energy market will react" after the waivers end in May, Putin said.
But, he added, "none of our partners, including Saudi Arabia, is withdrawing from our agreements within OPEC."
Saudi Arabia, the world's top crude exporter, has also said it had no immediate plans to raise oil output after the sanctions waivers end.
There had been speculation that Riyadh could step in to plug the gap left by the removal of Iranian crude.
www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article...

RU hebben ong. nu pas productie teruggeschroefd tot afgesproken niveau, SA onderproduceert dus die kunnen iets verhogen binnen de afspraken. note: Laatsten zeggen geen extra verzoeken (totnutoe), paperoil laat wel een duurder wordn zien.

[verwijderd] 27 april 2019 12:56

GEO
Putin made the announcement to journalists in Beijing on April 26 after meeting with Aliyev on the sidelines of China’s ‘Belt and Road’ forum
"We agreed to hold another Russian-Azerbaijani-Iranian summit in Russia in August," Putin said.
The three presidents last met at a summit in Tehran in November 2017.
en.mehrnews.com/news/144551/Russia-to...
het is maar een tweet maar benieuwd naar stokje (hoe) wat erachter zit... verontrustend signaal niettemin. (belangrijke producer met noodzakelijke sparecap.)
en.mehrnews.com/news/144553/UAE-s-par...

[verwijderd] 27 april 2019 22:06

SUPPLY Venezuela
The US oil embargo on Venezuela that comes into effect on Sunday
Venezuela 96 percent of its income from crude and the US its single largest customer. exporting 500,000 barrels a day to US companies
The new sanctions not only ban US companies from buying Venezuelan crude but also all foreign entities from using the American banking system to purchase the black gold from Caracas.
PDVSA's production could temporarily fall by 200,000 barrels a day. has already crashed from a high of 3.2 million in 2008 to just 840,000 in March.
Indian companies bought 22 percent of Venezuela's crude in 2017, behind only US (41 percent) and Chinese (25 percent) firms, according to the US Energy Information Administration. However, Reliance told AFP last week it was reducing its imports of Venezuelan crude and suspending the export of diluents -- which Caracas needs to refine its oil -- due to the new sanctions.
www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/us-...
What to watch: South Korea and Japan will likely end imports, while China and India will buy only low volumes of Iranian crude. Iranian exports may dip to around 500,000 barrels per day, a staggering collapse from the 2.3 million barrels per day it exported one year ago.
little margin for error in the case of additional oil supply disruptions, especially considering deteriorating conditions in Venezuela and the potential for disruptions in Libya. That’s a recipe for further upward price pressure.
www.axios.com/us-sanctions-on-iranian...

PAPER COT
The net-long WTI position rose 3.6 per cent to 314,387 futures and options contracts in the week ending April 23, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.
Long positions edged up 1.7 per cent, while shorts declined 18 per cent.
gulfnews.com/business/energy/oil-bull...

[verwijderd] 28 april 2019 11:30

TA Comm (Cu)
invst.ly/anc3f
3e leg up?
invst.ly/anc47

TA WTI
goldencross als blijft >61 (= trend feb), $63 =trend dec
fm-static.cnbc.com/awsmedia/chart/201...

$
www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/for...

SUPPLY
static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/... [BrentvsS&P500]
analysts questioning the depth of Saudi spare production capacity. much depends on Saudi Arabia and its willingness, and even ability, to again ramp up production in a timely fashion to keep crude prices from running wild over the short and intermediate term. A reference gleaned on the giant Ghawdar field in the recent Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) bond prospectus released publicly for the first time last month revealed production levels of 3.8 million b/d, much less than was previously assumed Furthermore, given the November experience of learning about the US exemptions largely through public sources, Saudi Arabia is likely to be deliberate in any response to calls to increase production. OPEC’s next meeting could put off any production decisions for another two months. With the lag between an increase in production and the time that production hits world markets, any supply shortages on global markets might not offer much relief before the fall. World markets could face four months of upward price pressure.
current Libyan production, estimated at about 1.3 million b/d through the end of last year, a five-year high.
the Russian Druzhba (Friendship) The Druzhba network is one of the world’s largest and supplies refining plants in Germany, France and Italy while connecting smaller refineries throughout southeastern Europe.over the next month or so, an estimated 1.5 million b/d will be withheld from global supply as Russia inspects and fixes its pipeline network.
the fear of supply shortages breaking out on the eve of the US driving season.The mix-match of crude grades available for export on global markets has also become a problem. US shale oil is an uber-sweet crude, low in sulfur, which is much easier to refine into distillates, such as gasoline. Global demand for such light grades of crude is currently high. At the same time, American Gulf Coast refineries, which are designed to refine much heavier crude, are now being starved of such grades with the loss of Venezuelan crude and the logistical difficulty of getting oil sands oil from Canada to US refineries. The technical and logistical problems of supply have likely reduced Gulf Coast production which are low given the advent of the US driving season.
seekingalpha.com/article/4257410-oil-...
COT graphs
www.actionforex.com/action-insight/oi...
Ristuben said he expects those prices to rise modestly soon. "On balance," he said, "this Iranian waiver issue probably actually puts some upward pressure - a modest amount of upward pressure - on that oil number, because the idea is that if Iranian oil drops out of the world's supply market, Saudis will kick in and replace it - and they said they will. U.S. shale companies will probably come in and replace it. But the reality is that it doesn't happen instantaneously."
seekingalpha.com/article/4257390-u-s-...

[verwijderd] 28 april 2019 12:49

$
morgen1 25 apr 2019 om 21:00
More upward pressure for oil market that's already going up (Peter Schiff)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYIGjeiLCbA
Het echt hete hangijzer, nu al en straks zeker!

SUPPLY Ru
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorc...

[verwijderd] 29 april 2019 11:03

invst.ly/anlo7

[verwijderd] 29 april 2019 14:13

Trump’s phone call with Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army, where Trump recognized his efforts in “securing Libya’s oil resources.”
blogs.platts.com/2019/04/29/us-iran-o...

Dacht ik al. En dat noemt 'ie dan OPEC. Moet je eens over nadenken.

P.S. Om je in de stemming te brengen:
Die Haftar woonde, met getrouwen, dus jaren naast Langley.

En deze mensen zijn ook blij dat hun olie ge-'secured' wordt:
www.yenisafak.com/en/world/arabs-in-s...
en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=1398...

[verwijderd] 29 april 2019 14:44

SUPPLY IEA
verkapte waarschuwing: However, the IEA notes that with global economic growth increasingly fragile, consumers and producers should take steps to avoid higher oil prices that will prove painful to all alike.

Volgens mij worden er straks meer mensen razend dan de bedoeling was. Maar zo kan het niet langer doorgaan.

[verwijderd] 29 april 2019 14:49

SUPPLY
Nigeria force majeur (wisten ze dus al, toch drop op twat. En dat naast die vervuilde olie uit Rusland... veel (co-)incidentjes.
www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-oil/u...
Er worden (internationaal gecoördineerde) smerige spelletjes gespeeld en vooral veel gehuicheld. De schaal waarop is echter groter en intenser dan anders. De 'beurs' is hier nu slechts een sideshow, bijzonder.

IEA
www.energyglobal.com/downstream/refin...

IMF
www.forexlive.com/news/!/imf-saudi-ar...

[verwijderd] 29 april 2019 15:05

Interessant 'policy' stukje:
blogs.platts.com/2019/04/29/us-iran-o...

P.S. Die Croft, nu RBC, die constant voor de camera's gesleept wordt was een CIA analist. In omstandigheden als heden ten dage wel effe rekening mee houden. NIEMAND, ook Trump niet, wil de olieprijs lager nu. (Niemand = niemand van hen die het bepalen)

[verwijderd] 29 april 2019 17:52

COT
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/41...

DEMAND IMF
moneyandmarkets.com/imf-global-econom...
moneyandmarkets.com/imf-middle-east-e...

invst.ly/anq8h
invst.ly/anqf2

[verwijderd] 30 april 2019 11:45

“Markets continue to celebrate gains in every asset class as a validation of central bank forbearance and the resumption of Goldilocks conditions,” Shalett said. Yet “if oil remains at current levels through year-end, headline CPI could breach 3 percent, creating a problem for the Fed, cutting into consumer purchasing power, pressuring corporate profits and imperiling the growth in China and the emerging markets,” she said.
uk.investing.com/news/commodities-new...
Zij brengt het als een probleem, ik denk dat het policy is. Zij die het bepalen willen de rente hoger ook al doen ze anders geloven. Olie is instrumenteel daarbij; inflatie.
Note: Q4 opmerking

[verwijderd] 30 april 2019 13:38

Waarom zei het IMF dat SA $85 nodig heeft? invst.ly/anzgp
Is hun Worldbank zelf olie aan het traden? (er zijn af en toe een paar interventies, dacht FED) Of voor welke politieke kar?

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