kusadasi schreef op 29 maart 2017 14:24:
Een analist uit de Dry-bulc shipping.
2) Strong commodity prices and high steel margins. Since last year, prices for Chinese steel and iron ore have soared 65% from the year before, while freight rates have remained at historic lows, Giannakoulis said. He expects shipping rates and vessel values will continue to move higher for at least another two years.
3) Growing Chinese infrastructure spending. Giannakoulis expects Chinese infrastructure demand, which represents about 25% of that country’s steel demand, to continue to grow as the government returns to traditional fixed-asset investments to stabilize demand. He said the pace of project approvals has been increasing, with infrastructure growth expected to reach 9% in 2017.
4) Increasing dependency of China’s steel industry on imported ore due to falling output and shutdown of induction furnaces that melt scrap. There has been a “very large” increase in iron ore inventories at Chinese ports, as a result of the continued closure of induction furnace capacity, Giannakoulis said. “We believe the closures of these sintering capacity/mines has reduced local miners’ ability to lift production, in turn forcing steel mills to get more iron ore from the seaborne market, driving inventories higher,” he wrote.
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5) Ton-mile expansion from Brazilian iron-ore exports and China’s increasing appetite for higher-grade ore. Giannakoulis said he believes dry bulk charter rates will be driven higher as ton-mile demand is expected to exceed fleet supply over the next couple of years.
“After a long period of oversupply, the dry bulk shipping market is expected to tighten over the next 2-to-3 years, driving by rising Chinese iron-ore imports and expanding ton-mile from low-cost Brazilian iron-ore supply coupled with declining fleet growth,” Giannokoulis wrote.