India to overtake China as the world’s largest importer of metallurgical coal by 2020 - Australia’s DIIS
Australian Department of Industry Innovation and Science in latest Quarterly Report said that "Metallurgical coal prices have been supported by strong import demand from both China and India. Some further near-term support is expected amidst persistently high steel margins in China. Near-term support expected for the metallurgical coal price The premium hard coking coal (HCC) spot price (FOB Australia) averaged an estimated USD 187 a tonne in the September quarter, down by 16 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 2.0 per cent year-on-year. Prices earlier in the quarter were weighed down by growth in global exports, but strong import demand from both China and India drove a subsequent rebound in the price. Some ongoing near-term price support is expected. China's imports of metallurgical coal are expected to remain elevated over the next couple of months as steel margins remain high, and as steel producers bring forward production before the winter production cuts. Beyond 2018, the premium HCC spot price is forecast to decline from an average of USD 197 a tonne in 2018 to USD 157 a tonne in 2019 and USD 145 a tonne in 2020, weighed down by softening demand from China and supply growth from a number of new projects around the world. Nevertheless, with strong demand growth expected from India, the price is expected to remain well above the lows of 2016."
World export trade in metallurgical coal grew by a solid 4.5 per cent in 2017 to 327 million tonnes, driven by firm economic growth and consequently strong growth in steel output around the world. However, the momentum that has driven the upswing in global economic activity appears to have peaked, with leading indicators, such as world industrial production, pointing to slowing growth in the future. Growth in world metallurgical coal trade is forecast to slow to an annual average of 1.8 per cent over the outlook period.
India is forecast to be the key source of import growth, driven by the ongoing expansion of its domestic steel sector. While Australia will comfortably remain the largest exporter of metallurgical coal, accounting for a forecast 57 per cent of the seaborne market in 2020, this represents a decline from 60 per cent in 2016. Other countries, including Canada, Russia and Mozambique, are expected to increase their exports and market share.
China’s metallurgical coal imports expected to drift lower In line with expectations, China’s metallurgical coal imports rebounded after a slow start to the year, growing by an estimated 23 per cent year-on-year from May to July 2018. Strong steel margins have driven steel output to record highs. At the same time, domestic production of coal has declined, driving demand for imports higher. China’s imports of metallurgical coal are expected to remain elevated over the next couple of months, with steel producers expected to bring forward production ahead of the winter production cuts that will begin in November. However, the enforced production cuts are bigger in coverage and scale than the previous year’s, and are thus likely to have more of an impact on net steel production and on demand for metallurgical coal. The trajectory of China’s imports largely depends on domestic production, which accounts for around 90 per cent of total metallurgical coal consumption. If domestic output remains lower than expected, this could have a positive effect on import demand. China’s imports of metallurgical coal are forecast to drift lower over the outlook period, as steel production gradually declines and as safety and environmental regulations ease and domestic coal output picks up.
India expected to become the largest metallurgical coal importer by 2020 India’s imports of metallurgical coal grew by 26 per cent year-on-year to 28 million tonnes in the first half of 2018. Growth in metallurgical coal imports has been driven by the ongoing expansion of India's steel sector, with steel production increasing by 8.8 per cent over the same period.