ASML « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

rolof schreef op 7 november 2017 13:43:

[...]
...
Mijn aanpak is, beter beleggen is een paar aandelen waar je echt in gelooft (en je goed je huiswerk voor doet) dan spreiden over 10 aandelen. Maar dat is niet ieder zijn ding.
ASML (het belangrijkste aandeel in mijn porto) poetst mijn rendement flink op.

Bij jou (jij hebt denk ik calls ASML) zal het helemaal wel hard gaan.
Het is je gegund.

Hartelijke groet, ook van N. Roloff
...

quote:

rolof schreef op 9 november 2017 10:36:

@Beperktedijkbewaking, hallo Han,
...
Komt goed (en ja, N. met zb, zeker hier in Algarve, 300 dagen zon per jaar ;-). Ook nu die staal blauwe lucht hier . gr. Roloff

quote:

Beperktedijkbewaking schreef op 9 november 2017 06:15:

[...]

Voor de optiebeleggers: ik werk meestal met diagonale call spreads. Dwz. gekochte itm calls met een looptijd van 6-9 maanden, tegenover geschreven atm calls met een kortere looptijd (die ik dan tijdig weer doorrol). Rendement vergelijkbaar met dat op de aandelen, maar m.i. met iets minder neerwaarts risico, en met meer mogelijkheden om ermee te 'spelen'.

quote:

Inion schreef op 9 november 2017 16:33:

150?

quote:

SNSN schreef op 8 november 2017 18:57:

For the last months the stock has formed (bearish) 'rising wedge' pattern with the target price ~160 Eur for Nov 8.

The lower edge of that 'rising wedge' pattern was broken down yesterday at ~159.

After the lower pattern edge was broken (see above), the actual 'pattern target' should be ~142. However, the 'first target' is just around ~152 - strong resistance at the lower edge of rising (trading) channel formed since Aug 29.

In general, at current P/E = ~35 (price/earning ratio) the stock is highly overpriced. Actually above ~120 it's not an 'investment stock' any more, but just a 'trading stock' for the active 'mid-size speculators' - day-traders (using basic 'trading strategies' with usd & eur 'hedging accounts', given well expected declining for Eur/Usd-rates since Aug 29 - compare with the stock 'rising channel' above).

Indeed, 'investment stocks' usually have P/E ratios in the range 15 - 26. Compare with the P/E ratios for diff indices: P/E (S&P) = ~25; P/E (Nasdaq 100) = ~26; P/E (Dow Ind) = 21. For instance, for EPS = 9.2 Usd for 'Apple' (AAPL), the E/P ratio is just around ~19.

So, given stock's current annual earnings ~4.66 (1.23 + 1.05 + 1.08 +1.3) the stock's fair value is in the range ~ 70-121 (assuming the stock is an 'investment' one).

Again, given the Q3-report (take a look at the 'net booking') the 'net sales' in the next quarter Q4-2017 will be much lower, i.e. around ~2.28, than in the Q3-2017 (read old posts for details). As for the EPS for Q4-2017, it will be also well below the EPS from Q3-2017, to be precise - just around ~1.26, i.e. very close to the EPS = 1.23 for Q4-2016.

So, take care. Good luck.

quote:

SNSN schreef op 9 november 2017 16:46:

[...]

As you see, nothing strange, just 'business as usual'...

As you were inform (see above) the stock is just testing the 'first target' - the (dynamic) support zone around ~152 (see post above for details). This support zone is formed by the lower edge of the rising trading channel since Aug 29 (see above).

So, till the dynamic support level (~152.20 today) it's just a usual 'trading move' (necessary to preserve the 'drift') between the upper- and lower- edges of the rising channel (since Aug 29). Though, the rising trend itself was actually artificial one (pure tech-trading based), as was not caused by any really new objective info on the particular stock, just by comp tech trading by mid-size specs in usd & eur 'hedging accounts' at falling eur/usd rates since Aug 29 (see above).

However, don't forget, the actual 'pattern target' (read above) is around ~142. So, a real story may start just under 152, if the dynamic support (i.e. 'artificial/fake' sub-trend) is broken.

Take care.