Indian steel production gathers steam –Care Rating
Care Rating said that “During 2017-18, output in India grew by 3.1% to 105 million tonnes and consumption increased by 7.9% to 90.7 million tonnes The demand for steel from user industries is likely to result in increase in production and is expected to keep the prices firm during 2018-19, while some moderation in steel prices may be seen during the monsoon months as infrastructure and construction activities slow down during these months. The prices had averaged 18%-21% higher during 2017-18.”
“India’s steel production grew by 3.1% on a YoY basis to 105 million tonnes during the financial year 2017-18 backed by 7.9% growth in consumption during the year. The increase in output however is slower compared to 11.9% YoY growth reported by the industry during 2016-17 when production stood at 101.8 million tonnes.
Consumption growth rate on the other hand accelerated to 7.9% during 2017-18 compared to 3.1% YoY rise registered by the industry during 2016-17.
Steel has its usage in different industries depending on its category. Steel products can be widely divided into two categories, long and flat products. There are various products manufactured within these two categories based on the needs of user industries. While long products are generally used for construction, mechanical engineering, energy and automotive, flat products are generally used for automotive, heavy machinery, pipes and tubes, construction, packaging and appliances.
In addition to these two broad categories, finished steel production also includes alloy steel. It refers to steel that contains one or more alloying elements like chromium, manganese, silicon, nickel, copper, aluminium. This also includes stainless steel. Alloy steel has certain properties that are not observed in normal carbon steel and alloy steel is used in automotive, railways, defence and engineering.
During 2016-17, the output of flat products grew by a healthy 20.9% to 49.3 million tonnes and long products increased by 5% to 44 million tonnes on a YoY basis. In the next year 2017-18, the output of long products rose by 2.3% to 45 million tonnes and that for flat products was up by 0.9% to 49.8 million tonnes.
The output of alloy steel on the other hand grew by a strong 20.7% to 10.2 million tonnes which led the rise in finished steel production during 2017-18. In the previous year, production of alloy steel had increased by 2.3% on a YoY basis to 8.5 million tonnes.
India’s steel production is expected to remain higher in the current financial year 2018-19 backed by growth in domestic demand from user industries during the year.
Construction & infrastructure sector is the largest consumer of steel in India, it accounted for a noteworthy share of 62% of the total finished steel consumed during 2015-16. This was followed by engineering & fabrication sector, which had a second largest share of 22.1% of the total finished steel consumed during the year. The automotive sector was the third largest consumer of steel with a share of 10.1%, other transport and packaging & others sector had a share of 2.9% each in total finished steel consumption.
This sector includes building of highways, bridges, airports, ports, water transportation, pre-fabricated buildings, power projects, real estate residential and industrial. A notable portion of the steel manufactured in India (both flat and long variety) finds its usage either directly or indirectly in the infrastructure sector. A noteworthy proportion of long product consumption is led by real estate sector.
In the Union Budget 2018-19, infrastructure allocation for the financial year 2018-19 has been increased by 20.9% YoY to Rs.5.97 lakh crore from Rs.4.94 lakh crore in the corresponding period a year ago. The government thus continues its push towards infrastructure and construction which is likely to drive the demand for steel in India during 2018-19, the sector being the largest consumer of steel in the country.
This segment involves industries such as capital goods, consumer durables, electrical goods, general engineering, defence equipment etc. Steel products including hot rolled coils & sheets are used in general engineering and galvanised sheets are used in consumer durables. The consumer durables market is expected to grow by 6.5%-8.5% YoY on account of improvement in domestic consumption during 2018-19.
This sector is a major demand driver for flat steel products (including basic and specialty steels). These products are key inputs for manufacture of automobiles and accounts for significant cost with respect to automobile production. Flat products such as hot rolled coils & sheets find their application in wheel-disc in the automotive segment. Other products like cold rolled coils & sheets and galvanised coils & sheets find their application in auto parts viz. hood, roof, door, body side, floor, reinforcement pillar, structural safety components and impact beam. The automobiles sector is expected to register higher sales on a YoY basis during 2018-19 backed by a growth in demand from auto consumers.
Sales of the largest segment, two & three wheelers, is likely to grow by 17%-19%, and sales of the commercial vehicles (CV) and passenger vehicles (PV) segments’ is expected to rise by 18%-20% and 8%-10%, respectively.
Subsequently, we expect the demand for steel from user industries to remain higher in the current financial year 2018-19 which is expected to drive steel production during the year. Thus, India’s steel production is expected to grow by 6%-8% during 2018-19.
During 2017-18, domestic steel prices remained buoyant as they rose in the range of 18%-21% on a YoY basis. The increase in prices was on account of a growth in domestic consumption and international prices. The movement in international steel prices generally have an impact on domestic steel prices. Besides, higher raw material prices also resulted in rise in steel prices.
The prices of CR coils, HR coils and TMT bars averaged at Rs 49,436 per tonne, Rs 46,075 per tonne and Rs 39,935 per tonne, respectively, during 2017-18. During 2016-17, the prices of CR coils and HR coils rose by 5%-11% and the prices of TMT bars declined by 3.5% on a YoY basis.