Ik zal de tekst hier ook even plaatsen. Op zich niets nieuws onder de zon voor onze thesis, gewoon een bevestiging hiervan door een professionele investeerder (met sterk track record) die er hetzelfde over denkt.
"We continue to find attractive investments despite this strange environment. In January (edit;2021) we invested 10% of our capital in Basic-Fit, which is a low-cost gym operator in Europe disrupting a fragmented industry. We think that other investors do not understand the quality of Basic-Fit’s business and are overly focused on the pandemic’s temporary closure of gyms in Europe. The company has scale economies in procurement and technology that allow it to build and operate gyms for much less than its competitors. From studying how the low-cost gym industry has developed in the U.S., the U.K., and Germany, it is clear that a large player (like Planet Fitness in the U.S. or Pure Gym in the U.K.) can use scale economies to generate high returns on capital behind a wide moat. If you have scale that makes you the low-cost provider, and you build gyms across an area that all members can use, you make it impossible for a competitor to enter because there is not enough revenue to support two players given the fixed costs of running a gym. It turns out that low-cost gyms are similar to cable systems if you achieve local scale and density.
Basic-Fit has two million members currently and earnings power of €3/share, but we think membership will grow to ten million by 2030 due to increasing gym usage in France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands, market share gains in those countries from higher-cost operators, and expansion into new countries. If that happens, by 2030 the company should have about €10/share of earnings power and will have generated nearly €50/share in free cash flow, which we hope to see distributed as dividends or buybacks. We purchased shares for approximately €30, which means a ten-year IRR in the mid-20s if we are right about the business."