HansGarrincha schreef op 31 januari 2019 13:11:
Show-me set-up despite expectations for strong filgo safety and efficacy. We believe most investors are expecting an update in line with prior data (FINCH 2 note here): equal efficacy to upa but with some hint of a better safety profile. The key overhang on shares currently, in our view, is the fear of catastrophic issues, either safety or inadequate efficacy data (which we and most investors view as unlikely- i.e., 0-3% chance), but nonetheless a significant potential "game changing" risk to the filgotinib franchise, particularly in light of upa competition. This setup, in our view, portends two opportunities for upside: 1) the first of two FINCH reads
(perhaps 25% of the move higher), and then with fuller clarity on the second of two upcoming FINCH readouts (75% of the move higher). The positive base-case scenario - equal or better activity to upa and better safety (70% chance of this)- could see GLPG trade to $125-130 after both readouts. Recall, GLPG shares rallied ~20% following the positive FINCH 2 data.