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Fagron november 2015: laatste draadje?

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Ik wil dit ook graag uitgelegd zien hoe je kan denken dat shorters hebben afgebouwd omdat de koers zo snel zakt op zo een korte tijd?
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uralus schreef op 20 november 2015 19:23:

Ik wil dit ook graag uitgelegd zien hoe je kan denken dat shorters hebben afgebouwd omdat de koers zo snel zakt op zo een korte tijd?
Dat kan je checken in de verschillende shortregisters (die helaas niet altijd up to date zijn)
BLOK-E
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Er is maar nodig (10-20.000 stuks) om een lawine effect te krijgen in dit fonds. Dan volgt de rest, up and down. Velen Zijn dan bang dat er slecht nieuws is. Anders om, bij vlugge stijging in korte tijd zelfde weg naar boven. Zit er vanaf nu weer mega in, tot Maandag.
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Bedankt Beur, dat wist ik. Het was alleen omdat ik hier iemand zie die denkt dat shorters vandaag veel hebben afgebouwd in de laatste 40 minuten vandaag. Of ik heb dat verkeerd begrepen. Het maakt eigentlijk niet veel uit of ze hebben afgebouwd of niet. We weten nog altijd niet hoe dit afloopt, en iedereen reageert overdreven en dat zie je gewoon aan de koers die heel volatiel is.
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Mariana schreef op 16 november 2015 20:37:

[...]
De op- en afbouw strategie van WorldQuant op www.shortsell.nl en FSMA.

WQ werd zichtbaar op 19 augustus met 0,50% en begon met opbouwen.
20 augustus 0,64%
21 augustus 0,73%
24 augustus 0,88%
25 augustus 1,00%
27 augustus 1,16%
28 augustus 1,26%
31 augustus 1,39%
1 september 1,50%
2 september 1,68%
3 september 1,77%
7 september 1,80%

Dan wat afbouwen
8 september 1,69% (PB Fagron neemt ABC Chemicals over).
10 september 1,56%
11 september 1,49%
15 september 1,38%

Om weer op te bouwen
21 september 1,40%
23 september 1,53%
24 september 1,66%
25 september 1,78%
28 september 1,81%

Dan maar weer wat afbouwen (2 oktober PB overname)
7 oktober 1,60%
8 oktober 1,50%
9 oktober 1,45%
12 oktober 1,35%
13 oktober 1,29%

Om weer op te bouwen
22 oktober 1,44%
27 oktober 1,52% (3 november PB Anastasia-Kempen)
4 november 1,68%
6 november 1,71%
12 november 1,85% (PB KBC: vragen stellen USA)
13 november 1,92%.

Om weer af te bouwen
16 november 1,85%
17 november 1,76%
18 november 1,69%
19 november 1,58%
20 november ???

Drs P.
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Nog even de feiten (bron: Q3 trading update 9 oktober 2015):
Fagron Trading update third quarter of 2015, men geeft aan dat:
1. Fagron received indications of interest in the form of non-binding offers
2. A selected number of bidders are currently performing confirmatory due diligence 3. Further announcements will be made if and when circumstances so require.

The average time for this entire confirmatory due diligence process (occurring between the First Round Bid and the Final Binding Bid) is approximately 3 to 6 weeks.
Ik zal in mijn volgende posting het hele process posten ter info, zodat wij allen een idee hebben wat er allemaal moet gebeuren voordat men uiteindelijk de markt een final bod kan mededelen.
Drs P.
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INVESTMENT PROCESS UP TO SIGNING (DEEL 1)
This section will look at how a typical PE investment process works. Even though the general aspects of the process are the same across various firms, the details can vary widely depending on how the investment opportunity was sourced (proprietary sourced vs. public auction) and each firm’s investment committee process. The larger the firm, the more formalized the investment committee process will be and the higher the probability that public auctions will be used. Conversely, growth equity firms tend to work on more proprietary-sourced deals where they have less competition and are dealing more directly with management. Growth equity firms also have less formalized investment committee processes because there are typically fewer partners in the firm, thereby requiring less work to build consensus among the partners before the investment can be made.
Signing a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA): In a public auction, investment bankers will often send out teasers, which are 1-2 page summaries about the company up for sale. If the investment team finds the teaser interesting, they will negotiate and sign an NDA to receive the company’s CIM prepared by the investment bankers. In a proprietary-sourced opportunity, investment teams will often sign an NDA directly with the target company in order to receive some confidential information regarding the company from management.
Initial due diligence & Management Presentation: At this stage, the investment teams will perform some initial due diligence to better understand the company. This generally includes research on the industry, talking to advisors about the specific company and the industry, and a building and enhancing a preliminary financial/LBO model using the management’s projections to understand the potential returns of making the investment. At the same time, the investment team may start reaching out to investment banks to hear their thoughts on the company and understand how much debt financing (and what type) would be available for an acquisition of this company. In a public auction, investment bankers will also offer a select group of potential buyers an opportunity to meet with the management team (referred to as a “Management Presentation”). The management team will present an overview of the company while the deal team is allowed to ask them questions about their business. In order to prepare for the management presentation, the investment team will create an initial due diligence question list (similar to questions discussed in the Commercial Due Diligence section).
Deal Alert (first review with Investment Committee): After reviewing the management’s presentation and having initial discussions, the investment team will prepare a brief (2-3 page) investment proposal and present it to the PE firm’s Investment Committee. The first Investment Committee meeting can have a variety of different purposes, depending on the PE firm. The meeting can be a deal update where no approval is needed, or it can be the beginning of a formal approval process, whereby a deal team will be given permission to submit a First Round Bid (discussed below) and/or a budget to spend a specified amount of money (referred to as “cost cover”) on consultants or other deal-related expenses. If approved, the investment would proceed into further diligence and discussions with the target company and its investment bankers.
Non-Binding Letter of Intent (LOI) or First Round Bid: At this point, the investment team may present the target company with a non-binding LOI for the transaction on certain criteria that have been shared with the investment team. The offer will detail a proposed purchase price (often a valuation range is given, rather than a specified amount), a proposed capital structure post-acquisition, key assumptions made, key due diligence areas, approximate timing needed to submit a binding offer, the PE firm’s relevant expertise and experience, and the necessary authorizations & approvals required by the PE firm’s Investment Committee in order to complete the transaction. At this point, the target company and its investment banking advisors will generally choose a few bidders to move on to the next round in the auction process. The seller will base its decision on key considerations, including total purchase price, credibility of the offer, the submitting firm’s experience and value creation strategy, and the submitting firm’s compatibility with the current management team.
Drs P.
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DEEL2:
Further due diligence with management: The target company will begin providing more detailed confidential information in what is typically referred to as a virtual dataroom to the bidders that proceed beyond the first round. Some example dataroom files are the corporation’s organization and legal entities, board minutes and reports, detailed operations records, owned and leased property agreements, intellectual property documentation, employee lists and employment agreements, detailed segment financial information, and historical audited financials. At this point, private equity firms will begin reviewing all of the relevant dataroom files and start to get more specific, detailed questions to the management team. Follow-up due diligence calls will be held (through the supervision of the investment bankers) with specific members of the executive and non-executive management team. Also, based on the dataroom files, the deal team will start brainstorming the critical issues that they will often hire third-party consultants to help investigate.
Building an Internal Operating Model: After having detailed conversations with the management team on all of the main drivers behind the business, the investment team will start building a detailed operating model for the business based on reasonable forecast assumptions. An operating model is a very detailed revenue and cost breakdown that is based on specific drivers and assumptions (e.g. price, volume, raw material costs, number of branches, number of customers, renewal rates, fixed vs. variable cost structure, etc.). All of these breakdowns combine into one model to describe the expected financial performance of the company in great detail. This gives the PE investors more detail on the drivers of potential return for the acquisition.
Preliminary Investment Memorandum: Once the team has completed a more detailed investment model, and a comprehensive investment thesis (reason for investing) and strategy (plan to carry out the investment thesis), a Preliminary Investment Memorandum (PIM, typically 30-40 pages) is compiled to summarize the investment opportunity to the Investment Committee. Sections in the PIM typically include:
Executive Summary: Details of the proposed transaction, background, and overall deal team recommendation and investment thesis.
Company Overview: History, description, products & applications, customers, suppliers, competitors, organizational structure, management team biographies, etc.
Market and Industry Overview: Key market growth rates, trends, etc.
Financial Overview: Historical and projected income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement analysis.
Risks and Key Areas of Due Diligence: Potential risks to the industry/business and key areas of completed and ongoing due diligence.
Valuation Overview: Comparable company analysis, precedent M&A transactions analysis, DCF analysis, LBO analysis, etc.
Exit: Initial thoughts on investment exit options and anticipated timing of exit.
Recommendations and Proposed Project Plan: The deal team will recommend proceeding with their proposed project plan based on a specific valuation range and budget approved by the Investment Committee. The project plan will include the hiring of third-party consultants to perform commercial, financial, and legal due diligence, and the team will hold further discussions with potential debt and mezzanine financing providers. Deal teams will typically perform only initial legal due diligence at this stage, since it is the most costly, and will typically hold off on it as long as possible (usually until the final stages of the bidding process).
Final Due Diligence and process up to submit a binding bid: Provided that the PIM has been accepted by the PE firm’s Investment Committee, the investment deal team and its consultants will perform any and all final and confirmatory due diligence in order to provide a Final Binding Bid for the target company (discussed later). At this stage, the deal team is now working exclusively on this investment opportunity (other potential investments that the PE professionals on the deal team were working on will be put aside or farmed out to other PE professionals at the firm) and is having daily interactions with the seller’s investment bankers and management team. The bidder will send specific requests to the company based on all key outstanding issues. These could include site visit requests, calls with specific salespeople/non-executive management, or calls with customers and suppliers. In addition, the deal team will be managing its consultants on other due diligence work streams, including portions of the commercial, financial, and legal due diligence process (detailed in “Areas of Due Diligence”). For example, management consultants (McKinsey, Bain, BCG, etc.) are typically hired to perform commercial due diligence on the addressable market, trends, and customer relationships. Accountants (KPMG, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Ernst & Young, Deloitte, etc.), specifically within the Transaction Services group of the accounting firm, are hired to perform confirmatory financial due diligence to ensure that all the financial information provided is accurate. M&A lawyers (Wachtell Lipton Rosen & Katz, Skadden, Sullivan & Cromwell, Simpson Thacher, etc.) are hired to perform legal due diligence and to handle the initial drafting of acquisition documents. At the same time, the investment deal team will be negotiating with the financing banks on the debt financing terms. When negotiating, the deal team’s objective is to obtain the best debt financing execution (i.e. choosing the right group of banks) at the most favorable debt terms. The deal team will also assist the financing banks with their own due diligence by fielding their specific questions and concerns in order to get them more comfortable with underwriting their debt commitment. The average time for this entire confirmatory due diligence process (occurring between the First Round Bid and the Final Binding Bid) is approximately 3 to 6 weeks.
Drs P.
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Als we uitgaan van rond de 6 weken, dan zouden wij rond volgende week iets moeten gaan vernemen. Tot die tijd zullen we dus geduld moeten hebben.
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Quae nocent, docent schreef op 20 november 2015 19:43:

Nog even de feiten (bron: Q3 trading update 9 oktober 2015):
Fagron Trading update third quarter of 2015, men geeft aan dat:
1. Fagron received indications of interest in the form of non-binding offers
2. A selected number of bidders are currently performing confirmatory due diligence 3. Further announcements will be made if and when circumstances so require.

The average time for this entire confirmatory due diligence process (occurring between the First Round Bid and the Final Binding Bid) is approximately 3 to 6 weeks.
Ik zal in mijn volgende posting het hele process posten ter info, zodat wij allen een idee hebben wat er allemaal moet gebeuren voordat men uiteindelijk de markt een final bod kan mededelen.

6 weken zijn meer dan voorbij
svenhedin
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JACKY CHAN schreef op 20 november 2015 18:36:

Er is een forse KV opkomst om niet de boeken te moeten sluiten.
Vraagje: WAt bedoelt u met KV (koersverlaging of koersverhoging) ??
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Quae nocent, docent schreef op 20 november 2015 19:50:

Als we uitgaan van rond de 6 weken, dan zouden wij rond volgende week iets moeten gaan vernemen. Tot die tijd zullen we dus geduld moeten hebben.
Dat kan ik ook nog wel opbrengen. :-).
Eerst maar even een paar dagen rust, goed weekend allemaal.
JACKY CHAN
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svenhedin schreef op 20 november 2015 19:53:

[...]

Vraagje: WAt bedoelt u met KV (koersverlaging of koersverhoging) ??
kapitaalverhoging(nieuwe aandelen uitgeven)
Drs P.
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willemn schreef op 20 november 2015 19:52:

[...]

6 weken zijn meer dan voorbij
als we uitgaan van 9 oktober, dan is het vandaag inderdaad 6 weken. Partijen hebben dus voldoende de tijd gehad om -indien men niet tot een final bod zou willen overgaan- dit aan de markt te melden.
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Quae nocent, docent schreef op 20 november 2015 20:04:

[...]
als we uitgaan van 9 oktober, dan is het vandaag inderdaad 6 weken. Partijen hebben dus voldoende de tijd gehad om -indien men niet tot een final bod zou willen overgaan- dit aan de markt te melden.
Dus moeten we aannemen dat het process nog loopt.
Drs P.
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uralus schreef op 20 november 2015 20:05:

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Dus moeten we aannemen dat het process nog loopt.
Precies, met JP Morgan als hun 'begeleider' zal men absoluut direct beursgevoelige informatie naar buiten brengen.
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Mariana schreef op 20 november 2015 08:39:

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Hierbij de link.

www.euronext.com/nl/content/fagron-nv...

Sorry, verkeerd gelezen, CCM ging op 18 september naar 4,17%.
Dank je voor je reactie.

Advocaat van de Duivel
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willemn schreef op 20 november 2015 18:50:

wel grappig eigenlijk
als de koers op een dag 10% stijgt komen hier de overname sommen van 27 en 33 voorbij
als de koers op een dag 5% daalt worden ze vergeleken met Imtech
Dit vind ik nu een leuke post....
Inderdaad Jantje lacht Jantje huilt
Er is geen nieuws en de koers schiet alle kanten op
en je leest de meest vreemde reacties....

Gezien de reacties die je leest zijn de meeste mensen die posten particulieren en die hebben in het algemeen niet zo'n sterke maag wat leidt tot dit soort overtrokken reacties zowel in positieve als negatieve zin....

Ik heb dat reeds eerder gemeld maar volgens mij is het heel simpel:

Je zet voor jezelf een koers uit (pos of neg) en bij uitblijven van nieuws dat je zou moeten doen besluiten anders te handelen blijf je die koers volgen ongeacht de bewegingen die er dagelijks plaatsvinden.

Probleem is natuurlijk dat er bijvoorbeeld gehandeld wordt met geleend geld...en dat weegt zwaar op de VBR en de portefeuille van de particulier. Dat leidt veelal tot zenuwachtig gedrag en de voornoemde reacties.

Maar vermakelijk is het wel......

Prettig weekend!


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Verschil -0,060 (-0,32%)
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