Dank jullie wel voor de positieve reacties op mijn blog. Geen zin om er heel veel werk textueel en gramaticaal enzo in te steken, maar ik hoop dat de inhoud wel wat extra's bied.
Als bonus, mocht je jezelf afvragen waarom EURN stijgt vandaag ondanks weak indices...
Pareto morning update on the state of the tanker market:
Spot rates: No end to the Charterer-panic in the VLCC market, despite reports of a couple of Cosco-ships being fixed. They are already trying to fix November-cargoes in the MEG, though most of these will not be out until next week. The market moved another 15 – 20 WS points, so benchmark AG – East rates are now in excess of USD 130,000/day. Less activity in the Atlantic, but rates have to continue upwards for
Owners to be willing to ballast now. Suezmaxes are also shining, with limited tonnage and every fixture coming in at improved levels. Black Sea rates now actually closing in on USD 150,000/day. Product tankers are slowly following suit, with LR2 sentiment pulling things upwards. Capesize- and drybulk momentum also picking up, with the paper-market moving up again yesterday as well.
VLCC: More focus on rising ship values – 2012-built reportedly getting ~USD 61 – 62m
? According to brokers, Zodiac emerged as the highest bidder in the auction for the 2012-built (HHI) Brightoil Galaxy this week
? The price is said to be USD 61.5 – 62m, which compares with our (recently revised up) NAV-assessment of ~USD 58.5m
? As the ship also was sold at an auction, the price is particularly impressive as these types of transaction often receive discounts due to some uncertainty around the
general condition of the vessel (has been inspected of course).
? We expect values of particularly 5 – 10Y old ships to continue rising, lifting NAVs for all of our tanker names. We expect the market now to price in an increase in values of 10%, which still would leave us 5-10% short of the 2014/15 peak across the board
? Including the tremendous (expected) Q4’19 and H1’20 cashflow and a 10% uptick in values would reduce our average P/NAV from currently 1.13x to below 0.8x