De ceo schreef Q1:
"As we move back to more normal interest rate levels, following the end of a 14-year low interest rates era, markets are having to adjust. Yields are up, the cost of capital is up and capital is scarce, for the time being. Investment mistakes are no longer being bailed out by falling yields. In short, the game is different.
As a result new office development is slowing down, as margins are under pressure or have evaporated, risk appetite is lower and funding is unavailable or prohibitively expensive."
Met een NIY van 4.3% en kredietkosten die daar een stuk boven liggen lijken dit geen loze woorden.
Dus hoe te investeren wanneer de markt geen kansen biedt? Hij stelt:
"Reviewing the development opportunities
Given the changes in the market, our development economics are now increasingly challenging, and so it may be cheaper to buy than to build. Yet, the quality of what we can build is far superior to the quality of what we can buy. This quality gap can obviously be bridged by capex, however market pricing is still in the process of adjusting to the necessary levels to make the economics for upgrading assets attractive."
Kortom, de prijs van vastgoed moet zich nog aanpassen, lees: zakken, voordat het verdienmodel weer werkt. Lenen is immers duurder dan die NIY. Wat niet helpt is dat vele potentiële verkopers hun rentekosten hebben ingedekt waardoor ze niet verkopen maar hopen op een daling van de rente, oftewel prijsstijging van hun vastgoed, voordat de hedges aflopen...