En hier de reden waarom vandaag alles meevalt:
Tankers can still do well after oil price war truce, analyst says
Tanker shares fell further after hours, but Jefferies' Randy Giveans said tankers would be alright
Investors may be fleeing from tankers on news of a possible Saudi Arabian oil supply cut, but Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans says rates should remain strong even if the oil price war ends.
New York-listed tanker owners saw their stocks crater Thursday, after US President Donald Trump tweeted Saudi Arabia and Russia could agree to cut oil production by 10m barrels per day.
Giveans wrote in a Friday morning note that a cut that steep is unlikely.
"Even if the cut happens, it won't be until May or June as April barrels have already been sold," he wrote. "Even then, the oil market would still be massively oversupplied, so contango is still in play."
Rates rocketed upward in recent weeks, with VLCCs pushing over $200,000 per day in the spot market, thanks to the failure of Opec and its allies to reach a supply cut agreement last month.
The failed negotiations saw Saudi Arabia increase production, increasing cargoes, sending oil prices plummeting and setting off a tanker rally.
But Trump's tweet and subsequent reports Saudi Arabia and Russia — and potentially US producers, as well — would be meeting Monday brought all that to an abrupt stop.
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate shot up nearly 25% Thursday and opened Friday 9.8% higher to $27.80.
In equities markets, John Fredriksen's Frontline fell 15.9% to $8.42 Thursday and further after hours, losing another 9.9% to $7.60. Euronav performed similarly, falling 13.8% Thursday to $9.50 and another 5.5% to $8.95 before the open.
Freight forward agreements have also fallen off, with a Middle East Gulf to China contract for April falling by more than $47,000 to $149,183 Thursday. The sell-off was even deeper for May contracts.
Giveans said despite the oil price rally, the six-month spread between oil prices now and oil prices later is still $6.50 per barrel, implying a $65,000 per day implied VLCC storage rate, moderating to $50,000 per day on a 12-month basis.
"This is the new floor, not ceiling," he said.
Beyond that, he said inventory de-stocking was not expected to occur until 2021 or 2022, depending on how quickly the global economy recovers from Covid-19.
"Downward pressure on rates should not be as severe as in the previous cycle, as the current orderbook-to-fleet [ratio] is only 8% (compared to 20% in 2016), and more than 7% of the fleet is currently over 20 years of age (compared to less than 4% in 2016), with the global fleet at the oldest average age in decades," Giveans said.(Copyright)