maandag 16 mei 2011 - 2:11
@zandeman:
Toch nog even de tijd genomen op iii BB te koekeloeren.Voor 't slapen
gaan.
Hier komt de eerste post die opviel.
Auteur: Investingisatrickybusiness. LOL.
If you have invested based on your own research and the messages the
company has sent out, please read on
11th April 2011, Rupert Cole, Proactive Investors
The well result was off the top of the scale in terms of the old model
The level of conservatism in a RR will be higher, but this doesn’t change
management’s view of the Bentley field and what we believe the outcome will
be
FSP is only a small part of the field
4th March 2011, Rupert Cole, Proactive Investors
Doing a Reserves Report is a straight forward assessment of what we have
We need to remodel from scratch to incorporate the increased in place
volumes because the well was way above modelled expectations
We are engaged and committed to a robust and efficient RAR to maximise
shareholder value and that I think is an important thing
Valuation metrics are based around $ per barrel in the ground. We have gone
up from a $100million to $1Billion company. That’s a reflection of the asset
value.
We still believe when we go through this process into FSP that there is
significant upside in the asset value and therefore the share price
13th January 2011, Charles Lucas-Clements, Oil Barrel
When want to give you information as to when future rises become true
(talking about share price)
With the two extra ones we are talking about oil in place of somewhere
around the Billion barrel mark. Still to be defined, it has broken all the
optimism we had, it’s more than we know, but we’re not quite sure how much
At the moment we know 750 is our best estimate for oil in place for the
specific field, that will get revised
And certainly we are not expecting to be anywhere near the low, but the
low’s go up to over 120 million barrels and the high at this point in time
is 250 and is a good go by
Where the P50 will be we are still working on and always have been working
on a number of 200. With EOR, EOR can effectively increase that number by
50-100%
We’ve seen many people say well, you’ve done your work, you can go home,
you can cash out. Well the answer is, I wouldn’t if I were you!
We’ve got rid of all the risks and the potential is there to come up to the
range of where it is pretty well established that $10 a barrel is the norm
for this valuation
We still think there is room to double and treble on a fairly, what you
might call, safe bet!
All the above are quotes from those three events
Summary
To the best of my understanding, xcite has not changed their view on any of
the above for the full Bentley field. This information they have supplied us
is only 4 months old and less
Until they say otherwise, I expect all of the above to be true
Assuming this to be the case, the shares are worth circa £5 now based on
barrels in the ground according to xcite
The RAR and its limitations has not changed this
Actions
The company needs to come out with a clear and precise statement
re-iterating all that they have said and standing by it. As such, they need
to declare that on their own and the industry’s valuation metric, that the
shares are trading at a discount of 60% and that they are clearly a very
strong buy. That they know of no reason why the shares should not be at the
£5 level at this point in time as this is fair value for what we have in the
ground
If they cannot do this through an RNS through the LSE, then they ought to
organise immediately a presentation(s) at Oil barrel and at all other
relevant audiences to re-iterate that where it was a doubling and trebling
share price opportunity they now see between 365%- 550% growth from £2.08
It has to be categorical, it has to be quick, it might require sharing a
bit more information and it has to be to the widest and most relevant
audience, supported by Arbuthnott, Institutions, even the alliance partners
who have seen the data and know the size of the field as xcite do.
This will then be unequivocal and the share price will rise to where it
should rightfully be, just as it did before
Mijn kommentaar: een goede weergave van feiten/konklusies.
Ben 't niet eens met statement: Xcite need to come out with more
xcplanation..
Lees het persbericht eens goed door, zou ik hem zeggen.
't staat er allemaal.
Kwestie van goed lezen en veel research.
Dan wordt investeren ook minder tricky and more sure thing.
Unrisking takes time. Ook niet vergeten.
Z. te N.