holmes schreef op 31 oktober 2024 13:04:
Koersdoelverhoging First Berlin dd 29.10.2024
INVITING PROSPECTS FOR THE NEXT CEO
Q3/24 sales were close to our expectations, showing a 12.3% increase in sales to USD74.8m (Q3/23: USD66.7m; FBe: USD 76.4m), while EBIT, which jumped to USD4.1m (Q3/23: USD1.9m; FBe:USD-1.4m), was €5.5m above our forecast. CEO Sijmen de Vrie[u]s anounced that he will not be standing for reappointment at the next AGM in May. However, we think this decision has been prompted by his 65th birthday this week rather than any problem with Pharming's business. In our view the market is undervaluing the prospect of acceleration in sales of the APDS (activated PI3K delta syndrome) drug, Leniolisib, from next year. APDS is caused by variants in either of two genes, PIK3CD or PIK3R1. Pharming has a number of initiatives in place to determine whether the large number of US patients with a VUS (Variant of Uncertain Significance) in the PIK3CD or PIK3R1 genes have APDS or not. The literature suggests that 20% of these patients will be found to be pathogenic/likely pathogenic. We expect Pharming's efforts to approximately double the pool of US Leniolisib patients from currently ca. 230 and model the number of patients on Leniolisib to exceed 600 by end 2028 following approvals in the EU, Japan and for under 12 year-olds (all 2026). Leniolisib patient growth should gain substantial further impetus from ca. 2029 following its approval for certain non-APDS PIDs (primary immunodeficiencies) whose prevalence is 4.7x higher than APDS. We expect revenues from non-APDS PIDs to make Leniolisib a bigger product than Ruconest.
We maintain our Buy recommendation and raise the price target to €1.70 (previously €1.60) to reflect an earlier return to profitability that we had previously modelled.www.more-ir.de/d/31147.pdf