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Arcelor Mittal juni 2020

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ramp 2017
0
per saldo niet veel opgeschoten vandaag , als je je ritjes goed had getimed , was het wel leuk , maar vandaag even niet , tot morgen nieuwe kansen ..
lefreaks
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quote:

inbetween schreef op 22 juni 2020 14:59:


Ter aanvulling: dit koersdoel gaven ze op 7 mei ook af op een koers van 10,21. 5 Dagen later stond de koers op....precies 7,50!!

€ 18,00: "Bij dit koersdoel hanteren de analisten een koersstijging van minimaal 15 procent in de komende 12 maanden". Dit staat er duidelijk bij! Kom jij aanzetten met een daling in 5 dagen...
Kom over een jaar nog maar eens terug en bekijk dan wat er als koers staat ;-)
snuf13
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;Stijve vingers van dit aandeel.... gewoon stilletjes genieten met een hele cent erbij...
Dat zijn kamelen.

Morgen hopelijk weer zo ,n enerverende dag...... volop genieten,, maar dan van het mooie weer :-)))
snuf13
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Zoals het er nu uitziet, komt er hoogstwaarschijnlijk morgen 2 cent bij!!!

Tenminste dat is mijn voorspelling, dus ik ben heel positief :-)
boeroptrekker
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inbetween
0
quote:

ramp 2017 schreef op 22 juni 2020 18:02:


per saldo niet veel opgeschoten vandaag , als je je ritjes goed had getimed , was het wel leuk , maar vandaag even niet , tot morgen nieuwe kansen ..
Gister was juist een makkelijke dag. Ingestapt 9,152 verkocht 9,467 lag voor het oprapen.
inbetween
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quote:

lefreaks schreef op 22 juni 2020 18:09:


[...]
€ 18,00: "Bij dit koersdoel hanteren de analisten een koersstijging van minimaal 15 procent in de komende 12 maanden". Dit staat er duidelijk bij! Kom jij aanzetten met een daling in 5 dagen...
Kom over een jaar nog maar eens terug en bekijk dan wat er als koers staat ;-)
Las ik ook. 9,50 plus 15% is 10,93 . Die 18 euro is dan zeker voor het jaar 2027 afgegeven. Mijn punt was trek je eigen conclusie op basis van nieuwsfeiten. Succes aan een ieder.
mvliex 1
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quote:

inbetween schreef op 23 juni 2020 09:07:


[...]Gister was juist een makkelijke dag. Ingestapt 9,152 verkocht 9,467 lag voor het oprapen.
Als het voor het oprapen lag ben ik wel benieuwd waarom je zeker wist dat de koers na aankoop zou gaan stijgen.
inbetween
0
quote:

mvliex 1 schreef op 23 juni 2020 09:11:


[...]Als het voor het oprapen lag ben ik wel benieuwd waarom je zeker wist dat de koers na aankoop zou gaan stijgen.
Gister bij opening stonde de futures in VS al op groen. Direct na opening gingen de verkooporders er uit, orderboek sloeg om, instappen. Je weet toch inmiddels wel wat gemiddeld de instap- en verkoopmomenten op een dag zijn. Die tijdstippen staan 8 van de 10 keer vast, dat patroon herhaalt zich dagelijks. Ten slotte, zeker weten doe je het natuurlijk nooit en ik ga ook niet voor het onderste uit de kan. Iedere dag 1-3% en ik ben dik tevreden. Gr
voda
1
Dear Hans,

We are sorry you couldn’t make it to the Kallanish Scrap & Iron Ore Markets Webinar last Wednesday.

For your convenience, we have made a recording available here so you can watch it at any time. Here are 12 questions from the webinar which the Kallanish editorial team have answered for you.

Q: The Chinese Iron ore import prices have shot up for Australian fines after the Brazilian supply crunch. When do you see the Brazilian supply easing, and do you think that the ease in supply is equally able to bring prices south of $100/DMT again in near term as it was able to drive them up recently?
A: As things stand Brazilian supply is already recovering. Unless there are new announcements, Brazilian supply should be running at higher levels in the coming weeks, rather than months. The uncertainty lies around whether there will be unexpected further disruptions due to the covid-19 outbreak. Without another dramatic change in dynamics, higher supply should be enough to bring prices under $100/t again.

You can read the remaining 11 questions and answers click here.

We received many more questions during the webinar that we had time to answer. The Kallanish Editorial team have read all the questions and provided answers.
Q: The Chinese Iron ore import prices have shot up for Australian fines after the Brazilian supply crunch. When do you see the Brazilian supply easing, and do you think that the ease in supply is equally able to bring prices south of $100/DMT again in near term as it was able to drive them up recently?
A: As things stand Brazilian supply is already recovering. Unless there are new announcements, Brazilian supply should be running at higher levels in the coming weeks, rather than months. The uncertainty lies around whether there will be unexpected further disruptions due to the covid-19 outbreak. Without another dramatic change in dynamics, higher supply should be enough to bring prices under $100/t again.

Q: Is China still prohibiting ferrous scrap imports and is it a total ban? If so, this is presumably increasing the costs for their steelmakers because (rising) domestic arisings are still not enough. 2 questions: a) Why are the authorities doing this? b) Are Chinese mills being forced to import billet and/or ore instead of scrap part of the reason why ore prices recently firmed, against consensus predictions?
A: The ban on most waste exports, including ferrous scrap, is still in place. Imports can be licenced, but licence issuance has fallen dramatically to a few thousand tonnes/year. Yes, this is increasing costs because local supply is not sufficient. As we noted in the China Scrap Market Report 2019, after a brief surplus in 2017 the domestic scrap market is likely to remain in deficit until around 2025, and so banning imports increases costs, especially for EAFs. This is key to the demand for billet and iron ore and hence has driven prices higher.

Q: What would be the scenarios should the Chinese open the scrap imports?
A: If China fully allows scrap imports and demand remains as it is, Chinese steelmakers could aim to further boost production by maximising scrap use. That could mean a decline in demand for the import of steel products and a sudden increase in demand for seaborne scrap. In 2009 China imported 13.7 million tonnes of scrap so the potential to disrupt scrap markets is large. We would expect to see ex-China EAF steelmaking margins vanish, driving overseas steel markets back into relative parity with China markets and hence shutting down the opportunity for steel imports to China.

Q: Why is the domestic iron ore supply not picking up? Does this relate to what MySteel is suggesting that the increase in domestic production of pellets is locking up supply?
A: The main reason domestic supply has not picked up is that the sector has been reformed dramatically over recent years. Previously there were a very large number of mines at marginal costs which would start or stop production depending on cost. These have largely been shut down for safety and environmental reasons. An increase in domestic production of pellets can only account for a limited volume of ore tied up. It may have impact at the margins but the big picture remains that there is not enough operable capacity to increase supply dramatically.

Q: What probability do you put on China loosening scrap import restrictions, and when might this occur?
A: Chinese policy making is a black box so it is difficult to say. What we can say is that this was initially a niche issue. CAMU does not carry a huge amount of weight in the halls of power. Now however more powerful players are lobbying alongside them. That includes CISA and the major state-owned steelmakers. As that lobbying gains momentum, easing restrictions becomes more likely. I would not be surprised if import restrictions are eased in 2021.

Q: China and Australia had tensions about Covid19 and iron ore shipments affected. What is the feeling from China government, when do you think such conflict be over?
A: China and Australia will always have some competing interests and some shared interests and the relationship will always be a bumpy one. For iron ore however there is an underlying shared interest. China cannot source enough iron ore without Australia and Australia relies on commodity exports for its national budget. The relationship is not as tense as during the Rio Tinto/Chinalco bust up and even then, markets essentially were set not by politics but supply and demand. Chinese has a very appropriate word for this: ?? (mafan). The political tension is troublesome, and annoying for those involved, but its impact on prices is small.

voda
2
Deel 2:

Q: What is the max iron ore price Fe62 for this year?
A: China’s demand spurt has reached record highs but has little further room to increase (see the latest China Steel Intelligence for more details). Any risk is therefore most likely from the supply side. If there are further serious supply disruptions then all bets are off. But, unless there is some dramatic news on supply, it is unlikely prices will return to $110/t, and they may struggle even to return to this year’s high of $105.45/dmt cfr Qingdao (KORE62% Fe on 16 June).

Q: Do you think scrap demand will also be strong in the Far East? Also, will billet demand be strong in July in the Far East?
A: No, I personally don’t think that scrap demand will rebound strongly in ASEAN in July. Rebar markets are weak and rebar prices cannot lift. Too much uncertainty over a second wave of infections and concerns that regional governments lack the financing to pull through and resuscitate battered economies. Construction projects especially in the private sector could be put on hold or not materialise. Government infrastructure projects are expected to proceed but there will be priority on more pressing issues including healthcare and food provision in the poorer countries in SE Asia.
Billet import demand has been sluggish because of lockdowns in SE Asia. Inventories have piled up during the period because of arrivals of billet and at the same time, the re-rollers stopped normal production. Importers could book but if they can secure low priced material. The problem the region faces is that China has been importing billet in large quantities which have driven regional billet prices up.

Q: How would you define the current dynamics in the finished long segment supporting the ferrous scrap purchases in the near term?
A1: Demand for construction longs is not expected to strengthen in the regional countries in ASEAN in the near term. The regional economies will go into recession for the year 2020. But if it is generally perceived that we have gone through the worst in the second quarter, the economies should be improving from that quarter onwards.
A2: We are expecting Turkish domestic long steel demand will be the driving factor in Turkey’s scrap purchases in the near future. Following the Turkish government’s new incentives for house and auto buyers, we have seen a significant increase in Turkish domestic demand. Turkey is one of the few countries along with Vietnam and China where growth is foreseen in 2020. Turkish Steel Producers Association expects Turkish steel production and domestic demand to increase 3% and 7-10% respectively in 2020.
WorldSteel expects global steel demand to contract by 6.4% in 2020. On the other hand, protectionist measures are foreseen to increase as a result of this contraction.
As a result, we are expecting capacity utilization rates to remain lower in 2020 compared to previous years which will most probably cause a surplus in scrap supply. (Japanese mills have already announced a production cut of approximately 20 million mt.)

Q: How will the second wave of the coronavirus affect steel demand?
A: There is the feeling that no ASEAN country can afford the economic cost of going into another complete lockdown. But the threat of reduced money in the economy, bankruptcies, reduced bank lending, loss of livelihoods will dent business confidence and depress steel demand.

Q: What are your ideas about the impact of the reviewed Safe Guard Measures for rebars in Europe?
A: The main issue for rebar importers will be that it seems that in the safeguard review all country-specific quotas will be allocated quarterly. This change will stop the possibility for importers to make use of the entire country specific quotas (for example for Turkish rebar) during the first week of the new quotas period. Last year in July, for example, the full quotas were used in just a few days. The European Commission justifies the change to avoid overcrowding of imports in a specific week of the year, nevertheless the problem will arise because it is expected that the new review will become effective from beginning of July despite the fact that many importers might have already ordered volumes of rebar based on the rules before the review was proposed. Effectively rebar imports into Europe will be limited somewhat by the new review and European rebar prices should benefit from this change.

Q: Do you see the use of EAF relative to BF increasing in Turkey in the short to medium term?
A: As EAFs are more flexible in terms of increasing and decreasing production, we have seen halts and capacity cuts mostly in EAFs. Turkey’s capacity utilization has dropped to 50% levels during the pandemic in April. Now, following the recovery seen in domestic demand, average capacity utilization rate stands at approximately 55-60%. However, with the expected production increase, it is expected to reach 65-70% average in 2020. EAF’s capacity utilization rates will be the determinant in the changes in Turkish steel production. Scrap consumption rate of electric arc furnaces stands at %93 in Turkey.
ramp 2017
0
quote:

inbetween schreef op 23 juni 2020 09:07:


[...]Gister was juist een makkelijke dag. Ingestapt 9,152 verkocht 9,467 lag voor het oprapen.



kun je ook zeggen hoe laat vandag we de laagste prijs gaan zien en hoe laat en wat die prijs zal zijn ... .. knipoog ..
inbetween
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quote:

ramp 2017 schreef op 23 juni 2020 09:31:


[...]


kun je ook zeggen hoe laat vandag we de laagste prijs gaan zien en hoe laat en wat die prijs zal zijn ... .. knipoog ..
Haha , je kunt niet het onderste uit de kan hebben...knipoog. Ingestapt 9,51 zojuist verkocht. het is weer mooi voor vandaag. Misschien gaat ie nog naar de 10 maar ik ben weer tevreden :-)
ramp 2017
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deel verkocht op 9,70 in hoop later weer goedkoper terug te kopen , zo nu eerts de faat doen en stofzuigen
Stokely
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quote:

Hansvdz schreef op 23 juni 2020 10:47:


10 gaan we wel halen vandaag, zit ik eindelijk aan mijn gak.

Sorry maar nee, we gaan eerst nog naar de 6 volgens Smurf!
Hansvdz
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quote:

Stokely schreef op 23 juni 2020 13:19:


[...]
Sorry maar nee, we gaan eerst nog naar de 6 volgens Smurf!


We zitten nu al aan 9,8. Welke smurf bedoel je, brilSmurf?
de volharder
0
Dear Hans, voor jouw berichten van 9.23 uur 2 welgemeende AB¨s
En zoveel moeite door iemand die geen aandelen Arcelor bezit.
Petje af!
Groeten uit Cali, de volharder

Ik zie net dat mijn AB´s niet overkomen. Duurt het langer als ze van
de andere Kant van de wereld moeten komen?
inbetween
0
quote:

Hansvdz schreef op 23 juni 2020 13:35:


[...]

We zitten nu al aan 9,8. Welke smurf bedoel je, brilSmurf?
Tja, in maart stonden we al op 16,50.
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Vertraagd 27 okt 2021 14:03
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