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Flatlander 2 november 2021 14:17

Stock,
SARS-CoV-2 will persist for years as the virus has shown the ability to mutate to survive. As such, we need to be prepared to deal with it as we do other endemic viruses such as the flu. That said, There is no shortage of companies offering testing. I don't think it is or will ever be a mainstay of BCARTs offering but it is a nice opportunistic add-on, I suspect that the major impact of the pandemic will be the shift toward decentralized fast TAT POC testing. Idylla requires less personnel, less reliance on the lab, and provides on demand testing capability, These are huge advantages in the present environment. This is a major tailwind but they have to get their act together, They have upped headcount but their RnD as meassured by the number of new assays launched per year has slowed appreciably. Also, they have to correct the T790 EGFR mutation amplification curve issue ASAP. I'm looking foreward to Nov 10, to see how they will address these issues.

FL,

Thole 2 november 2021 19:34

Lots of us are looking forward to the 10th of November, I just hope that it will be impressive and convincing. Impressive in terms of resiliancy and results after line 2 went back up and running and convincing in terms of communication and pipeline (with prospect of results) for the upcoming weeks and months.

Rhuno 3 november 2021 16:59

not alone the testings, biocartis is more than that

JotieP 3 november 2021 21:53

I'm curious as well.
Howmuch was the impact of the fire and how transparant will that be represented in their figures?
I'm really looking forward to a Half year figure without a "exceptional circumstance".

that said, I agree with FL regarding SARS-CoV-2 that will persist for years. I was double vaccinated and just got Corona. I'm a very healthy 31 year old guy without any medical issues. The way it hits me is surprisingly hard.
This means the virus is mutating or the vaccine wears off after a couple of months. Either case, it will result in a continuous need of testing and will remain a workload issue for the personnel.

Still got my shares of BCART. I Believe in the product. I have serious doubts about the management due to the untransparant way of communicating (f.ex. communicating a huge increase in cartridges sold in H1 2021 if compared with 2020 H1... But compared with 2020 H2, there was only a marginal increase. These things really bug me, as it is clearly window-dressing and treating investors as sheep who only read the headlines of a press release)

also regarding the assays... way too silent. not that much time left until money runs out.

kind regards,
JotieP

GoedeDag 3 november 2021 22:27

I agree that the need for testing will remain for awhile. If you look at the health news of hospital staff being exhausted and staff quitting or just being ill it stands to reason that a testing method where you almost need no one can be handy.

News about assays or their progress with the FDA is lacking. Hopefully the 10 November update will shed some light on that and will be more than just numbers of cartridges sold and idylla's placed.

ElTorro 4 november 2021 14:26

"Credit Suisse keert zich af van de beurshandel" benieuwd wat ze met de aandelen van BCART gaan aanvangen..

Thole 10 november 2021 07:19

Wat denken jullie van de update van Biocartis? Op eerste zicht vaak nogal vaag.

Hopper58 10 november 2021 07:19

Op de website staat vandaag een powerpointpresentatie van het bedrijf. Eén pagina over de 3Q resultaten maar geen duidelijke cijfers. Ik ben niet zo ingewijd in het bedrijf om er een mening over te vormen. Iemand?

Hopper58 10 november 2021 07:20

Wel wordt gesproken over tekorten in de toevoerketen.

VP100 10 november 2021 07:23

Teveel excuses mbt die brand. Na de excuses vanwege Covid nu dit. Weer een lauwe, weinig ambitieuze communicatie wat mij betreft, zoals steeds bij Bcart. En quid de Chinese markt, FDA approvals etc?
Mvg

Stockbrood 10 november 2021 07:23

Update komt niet overtuigend over.
Anderzijds moeten we rekening houden met de brand van eind juli. Dit in rekening genomen kun je onmogelijk ontevreden zijn over de cijfers.

2 maanden stil gelegen. Ik denk dat we allen een grotere impact verwacht hadden.

De problemen met reagentia zijn er dus toch echt wel geweest. Ze overtuigen mij niet dat dit opgelost zal zijn tegen het einde van dit jaar.

Een update over de start van Q4 had ook leuk geweest.

Opnieuw geen woord over approvals...

Hopper58 10 november 2021 07:23

Ah sorry: nu ook de business update gevonden. Lijkt dezelfde cijfers als in de presentatie. Dus geen echte omzet in €, Ebitda, etc

CGCDLR 10 november 2021 07:25

Niets nieuws, hoe ze de gaan groeien de komende jaren is me een raadsel.Ze hebben nu al problemen om voldoende reagentia te vinden, verwacht volume dit jaar 320000 stuks!Stel dat de FDA de Sepsis test goedkeurd,wat gaan ze doen? Zeggen, We hebben een goedgekeurde test maar we kunnen niet leveren.

Hopper58 10 november 2021 07:28

quote:
Stockbrood schreef op 10 november 2021 07:23:
Update komt niet overtuigend over.
Anderzijds moeten we rekening houden met de brand van eind juli. Dit in rekening genomen kun je onmogelijk ontevreden zijn over de cijfers.

2 maanden stil gelegen. Ik denk dat we allen een grotere impact verwacht hadden.

De problemen met reagentia zijn er dus toch echt wel geweest. Ze overtuigen mij niet dat dit opgelost zal zijn tegen het einde van dit jaar.

Een update over de start van Q4 had ook leuk geweest.

Opnieuw geen woord over approvals...

Ik denk voor die approvals moet je die bedrijfpresentatie van 10/11 bekijken die ergens anders op de site staat.

Hopper58 10 november 2021 07:31

quote:
Hopper58 schreef op 10 november 2021 07:28:
[...]

Ik denk voor die approvals moet je die bedrijfpresentatie van 10/11 bekijken die ergens anders op de site staat.

Voor die presentatie moet je naar het download center

joe123 10 november 2021 08:41

Alweer povere resultaten alsook outlook.Ben blij dat ik er al lang uit ben.

Hopper58 10 november 2021 08:46

Vóórbeurs lijkt het aandeel niet slecht te reageren. Op boerse.de: + 0,37 %

JotieP 10 november 2021 09:11

The slowdown of cartridges, mentioned in Q3, is wrong.
It didn't start in Q3, but in Q1. They just had the "luck" to compare Q1/2021 with Q1/2020 with the start of Corona. Q1/2020 was terrible, and even a bad Q1/2021 came out positive.
According to my calculations, cartridge sales ended up between 92K and 100K for Q3.

just FYI:
2019.1: 25.5K
2019.2: 46.5K
2019.3: 44.5K
2019.4: 58.5K

2020.1: 43K
2020.2: 37K
2020.3: 71.5K
2020.4: 78.5K

2021.1: 73K
2021.2: 83K
2021.3: 92K
2021.4: ?

note: figures Q1 + Q2 are always equal to H1. Q3 + Q4 = H2. Only H1 and H2 figures got confirmed by mgmt. Q figures is "guessing" based on the press releases of 2016, where assumption can be made that cartridge sales were 3K/4K/7K/11K. All other years have been extrapolated based on these figures. They get a little deviation when YTD figures are compared: 92K based on growth Q on Q, and 100K based on growth YTD Q on YTD Q.
Maybe i'll be able to figure the exact figures out with the current additional data. Keep you posted.
Nevertheless, i do see growth in there. I don't see a slowing down of growth, other than the slowdown that occured in Q1 (but which they muffled away by comparing to Q1.2020. In these cases however, truth prevails).

cartridge target end of year will be met.
320.000 cartridges have been mentioned. 40% increase is however 322.000 cartridges.
assumption with more or less same growth rate: let's add 100K cartridges. total 2021 is 348K.

to be honest, i'm not depressed with this press release. The fire did have it's impact, and i assume sales would have been higher without it. nevertheless, a steady 10% growth Q on Q.
The stock might go down short term due to people only reading the highlights (slowdown of growth in a growth company), however cartridge sales was just in line with previous quarters (nevertheless, growth rate should be 20% Q on Q and not 10% to ensure no dillution of share holders... however that's an illusion, as sales prices should have increased as well already).

regarding the open order book: If this is the case really worth mentioning, this is actually really good news. It means that there could have been sold more than 92K cartridges. As i already am very aware about the windowdressing skills of the mgmt, i'm assuming it will be 0 - 1000 cartridges just to be sure. The mgmt tends to present figures way to positive vs reality (and then truth catches up, like in this quarter).
Nevertheless, in the assumption that there would be f.ex. a backlog of an additional month (30K cartridges), and considering the growth Q on Q towards 100K cartridges, then we could end up with 130K cartridges in the last Q of 2021.
maybe wishfull thinking. As we are not getting any update about the size of this backlog, i keep the assumption of 0.

I added all the figures of this post in attached document in a matrix format. this is the document i'm using for my calculations. if someone is working with different figures for the quarters, please let me know. i'm eager to find the remaining (i assume small) errors

good luck today,
JotieP

Bijlage:

JotieP 10 november 2021 09:47

quote:
CGCDLR schreef op 10 november 2021 07:25:
Niets nieuws, hoe ze de gaan groeien de komende jaren is me een raadsel.Ze hebben nu al problemen om voldoende reagentia te vinden, verwacht volume dit jaar 320000 stuks!Stel dat de FDA de Sepsis test goedkeurd,wat gaan ze doen? Zeggen, We hebben een goedgekeurde test maar we kunnen niet leveren.

don't underestimate the impact of Corona on logistics.
this is not a BCART issue itself, but a worldwide issue. a 40ft container is currently 5 times more expensive as 2 years ago. a lot of materials get stuck in the ports in Asia, as it is not beneficial for renting a container at these spot prices. this disrupts the entire logistical chain, even for goods which are beneficial to transport (f.ex. reagents).
this disruptions results in multiple companies ensuring goods at any cost, creating a higher demand and making it more difficult for smaller companies to purchase.
This is a temporary effect, however can harm BCART significantly in this short term. I expect container rates to normalize in the coming 1 - 2 years.

ElTorro 10 november 2021 09:51

Thanks Jopie for that clear overview. Makes sense.

If your projection is correct, then BCART is still on track to reach the numbers they stated, which is good. For reaching the 20%¨point you stated, you will need some acceleration fuels (like FDA approvals), which we are still awaiting..

For those who were hoping on strong figures this quarter, I don't think they are realistic on what they are expecting from this company.

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