ketchup schreef op 24 september 2022 08:21:
ter info van een equity research van een investeert Bank over de gevolgen van extra belastingen over de olie-gassector
EU/UK windfall taxes for oil & gas companies
GALP, NESTE, REPSOL are the most impacted by the EU refining windfall tax with respective impact of -10%, -10% and -6% cash-flow wise in 2022e ( assuming a uniform 33% supplemental tax across EU members )
- European Big Oil companies have the vast of their E&P activities ( except OMV) outside the UK/EU and those upstream profits cannot be taxed twice ( double tax agreements)
OMV ( Austria's biggest company) is by far the company with the largest EU/UK exposure in terms of upstream production ( 37%) , while GALP has no exposure ( all the other names under coverage have below 8% hydrocarbon production located in the EU/UK
- Equinor with no refining capacity in the EU and with very little production in the UK is the least impacted ( 0,2% of 2022e)
- the 2022e impact on BP's cash flow is just - 3,5% , SHELL -2,7% and Total - 4,8 %
for ENI the impact is - 8,5%
- Trading activities for Big Oil & Gas companies have been excluded from our windfall tax estimates as they are mainly located outside the EU
trading activities from Total ( Switzerland) , Shell and BP ( Singapore , Houston )
conclusion:
we reiterate a BUY on all Big Oils , as the sector remains incredibly cheap ( with or without windfall taxes )
after the impact of windfall taxes ( EU+UK) , the sector will still trade at a whopping 28% 2022e FCF yield
for 2023 , as we have conservatively used normalised refining margins in Europe of just USD 5 / bbl , the potential residual impact of EU refining windfall taxes will be very low ( if extended into 2023 )
our preference : BP, TotalEnergies
ps: zelf heb ik Shell in de porto , wellicht als ik nog wat extra informatie en confirmatie krijg over deze view dat ik TOTAL koop
gd wknd